El Niño Strengthens, Posing Global Flood and Drought Risks

The El Niño phenomenon is intensifying in the Pacific Ocean, with projections indicating its effects could persist into 2027. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a greater than 90% probability that the current event will reach "very strong" intensity during the 2026/27 autumn and winter. Anomalously high sea surface temperatures have already been recorded in key monitoring areas. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms El Niño's establishment and expects it to strengthen, with a near 100% chance of continuation until at least February 2027.

El Niño alters global air currents and rainfall patterns, leading to increased flood risks in some regions and drought and extreme heat in others. Australia is experiencing particularly unusual conditions, with some models predicting peak anomaly levels exceeding those of the strongest recorded El Niño events since 1950. These climatic shifts have significant economic implications, impacting agriculture, food prices, insurance, infrastructure, and supply chains.

Coastal Peru is preparing for heavy rains and potential flooding, with forecasts suggesting an "extreme" intensity event in the coastal region lasting until mid-autumn 2027. Conversely, parts of Australia face a heightened risk of below-average rainfall and drought conditions, continuing a trend of dryness in some areas for two years. However, Australian authorities caution that a strong El Niño does not automatically guarantee extreme drought, as local climate factors also play a role.

Indonesia faces a dual threat of dryness and increased wildfire risk due to reduced rainfall, potentially impacting agriculture, aviation, public health, and cross-border air quality. The article also notes that the current El Niño development occurs amidst already sensitive global food markets, where crop failures in multiple growing regions could reduce supply and raise prices.

In Israel, El Niño's direct impact is less pronounced than in regions like Peru or Australia. Israeli winter weather is primarily influenced by systems developing over Europe and the Mediterranean. While El Niño can alter global flow patterns and indirectly affect regional probabilities, it does not directly generate rain in Israel. A study of 156 years of data by the Israel Meteorological Service suggests a correlation between strong El Niño events and precipitation in Israel, but does not guarantee a wetter-than-average winter for 2026/27, as other Mediterranean systems can modify the effect. The primary concern for Israel is the potential for extreme rainfall events concentrated over short periods, leading to urban flooding, flash floods, road closures, and infrastructure damage, exacerbated by climate change which allows warmer air to hold more moisture. Local authorities are urged to prepare by clearing drainage systems, identifying flood-prone areas, and planning for potential disruptions.