El Niño Threatens Israel With Extreme Weather and Economic Shocks

Israel faces significant challenges from the intensifying El Niño phenomenon, which is predicted to persist until at least February 2027, according to Israeli scientists cited by Ynet. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts El Niño could reach extreme intensity, with a near 100% probability of lasting until early 2027.

This winter, El Niño may increase the risk of heavy rainfall, floods, and inundation in Israel. The warm Mediterranean Sea could exacerbate these events by providing additional moisture and energy to storm systems. However, scientists caution that El Niño also heightens weather instability, making predictions of an anomalously rainy winter uncertain.

Professor Daniel Rosenfeld of the Hebrew University emphasized the need for preparedness, noting recent extreme weather globally and in Israel. He warned that intense El Niño could lead to torrential rains and floods, stressing that the rate of rainfall, not just the total amount, is critical. For instance, 80 mm of rain over several days can benefit water resources, while the same amount in a couple of hours can cause severe flooding, soil erosion, and road closures.

Research from the Israel Meteorological Service indicates a correlation between El Niño's strength and precipitation levels, particularly in central Israel and the Judean Mountains. However, its impact is indirect, influenced by weather patterns over Europe and the Mediterranean. Scientists recommend proactive measures such as checking drainage systems, identifying risk zones, preparing roads, and inspecting underground parking and public buildings, alongside improving early warning systems and emergency service coordination.

Beyond weather, El Niño could impact Israel's economy through global supply chains. Crop failures and infrastructure damage in exporting countries may disrupt supplies and raise prices for food and raw materials, a significant concern for Israel due to its reliance on imported grain and agricultural inputs. A commission led by Professor Dan Yakir of the Weizmann Institute advises monitoring the phenomenon and preparing for its consequences. Even with weak direct weather effects, El Niño's global nature can indirectly affect food security, global supply chains, and the economy.