El Niño Intensifies, Threatening Extreme Weather and Food Prices in Israel

Israeli scientists are urging preparedness for the intensifying El Niño climate phenomenon, which is expected to persist until February 2027. The Israeli National Academy of Sciences' climate commission has highlighted two primary concerns for the country: potential extreme winter weather and increased food prices due to global supply chain disruptions. The World Meteorological Organization anticipates a very high intensity El Niño, with a near 100% probability of its continuation through early 2027.

For Israel, El Niño could increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall, flooding, and flash floods during the upcoming winter. The warm Mediterranean Sea may further exacerbate these conditions by providing moisture and energy to storm systems. While El Niño makes weather patterns more unpredictable, scientists stress the need to prepare for extreme scenarios, including intense downpours that could cause widespread damage, road closures, and rapid flooding, particularly in coastal cities and low-lying areas like Gush Dan, Ashdod, and Haifa. Some models suggest rainfall could exceed 140% of the norm in the Judean Mountains and northern Negev.

Beyond direct weather impacts, El Niño's global effects pose an economic threat to Israel. Crop failures in major food-exporting nations, infrastructure damage, and transportation disruptions could lead to significant price hikes for food and raw materials. Given Israel's reliance on imports for grain and agricultural supplies, these global supply chain issues could directly impact the country's food security and economy.

El Niño, a cyclical climate event occurring every 2-7 years, involves an abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming releases vast amounts of energy into the atmosphere, altering global air currents and weather patterns. The current El Niño is predicted to be exceptionally strong, potentially surpassing the 2015 record with a projected ocean surface temperature anomaly of 3.7-3.8 degrees Celsius. Scientists recommend proactive measures such as inspecting and clearing drainage systems, identifying flood-prone areas, preparing for road closures, and enhancing communication between local authorities and emergency services.