El Niño Intensifies, Israel Urged to Prepare for Extreme Weather

Israel's National Academy of Sciences and Humanities has released a position paper warning of potential extreme weather events this winter due to the strengthening El Niño phenomenon. The paper emphasizes the urgent need for preparedness, citing unprecedented heatwaves in Western Europe and unusually rainy weather in Israel during August as indicators of unpredictable climate patterns.

Professor Daniel Rosenfeld, a climate science expert from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a member of the committee, highlighted that a strong El Niño could increase the likelihood of intense rainfall events. These could lead to severe flooding, particularly when combined with a warm Mediterranean Sea. "We need to prepare now, not after the first storm arrives," Rosenfeld stated, stressing that the atmosphere's capacity to hold more water vapor in a warming world, coupled with a heated Mediterranean, can fuel powerful rain systems.

The World Meteorological Organization forecasts El Niño to reach very high intensity and likely persist until February 2027. While the phenomenon's strength doesn't solely determine Israel's winter weather, recent studies by the Israeli Meteorological Service suggest a positive statistical link between El Niño's intensity and precipitation in Israel, especially in the central and Judean mountain regions. However, the impact is indirect and depends on weather systems over Europe and the Mediterranean.

Beyond local weather, the position paper addresses El Niño's global implications, including potential crop failures and infrastructure disruptions that could affect food prices and supply chains. As a significant importer of agricultural goods, Israel could face economic and strategic consequences. The committee, chaired by Professor Dan Yakir of the Weizmann Institute of Science, advocates for proactive measures such as maintaining drainage systems, mapping flood-prone areas, preparing for road closures, inspecting underground parking, and strengthening inter-agency coordination.

The paper concludes that El Niño, while a global event, can indirectly impact Israel's food security, commodity prices, supply chains, and the global economy, underscoring the importance of monitoring its development for timely preparation, even amidst uncertainty about the local winter forecast.