Israel Eyes Expanding Submarine Fleet Amid Turkish Naval Buildup

Israel's defense establishment is recommending a significant expansion of the Navy's submarine fleet, proposing an increase to eight operational submarines. This recommendation stems from evolving strategic dynamics in the region, particularly the growing naval power of Turkey.

A professional assessment conveyed to political leadership suggests Israel should aim for a fleet of eight submarines in the coming years, marking a shift from merely replacing aging vessels to actively increasing the overall number. This strategic adjustment is partly driven by Israel's monitoring of the Turkish Navy's expansion.

Turkey currently operates 14 submarines and is expected to increase this to 18 in the near future, acquiring advanced German-technology vessels. In contrast, Israel operates five submarines, with a sixth expected soon. However, defense officials believe even six submarines will be insufficient for future needs.

The first step proposed is acquiring a seventh submarine, for which Israel has an option under a previous agreement with Germany, though it has not yet been exercised. This option, valued at approximately one billion euros, is recommended for immediate exercise before potential price increases. Subsequently, the defense establishment aims to secure an eighth submarine.

This proposed increase represents a significant change from previous discussions, which ranged between five and six submarines. The defense establishment's updated stance is influenced by the post-October 7 security reality and Turkey's military strengthening. However, senior defense officials anticipate that such a large procurement deal will likely be deferred until after upcoming elections, to be presented to the subsequent political leadership.