Israel Security Establishment Recommends Expanding Submarine Fleet Amid Turkish Buildup

Israel's security establishment has formally recommended increasing the operational submarine fleet to eight vessels, a significant shift from its previous stance. This recommendation, based on close monitoring of Turkey's naval expansion and lessons learned from the October 7th attacks, was delivered to the political leadership. Currently, Israel operates five submarines, with a sixth expected to join the fleet soon. The proposal calls for a net increase in the number of submarines, rather than simply replacing older ones with newer models.

Turkey has been rapidly modernizing its navy, now possessing 14 advanced German-made submarines, similar to those operated by Israel. Ankara plans to expand its submarine fleet to 18 vessels in the coming years, prompting concerns within Israel's defense circles. The evolving regional landscape and operational insights from recent events have also influenced this strategic reassessment.

The issue of submarine fleet size is particularly sensitive in Israel, especially in light of past state inquiry commission findings that criticized the lack of professional planning regarding the required fleet size. Previously, the security establishment believed five or six submarines were sufficient, but a new, unified position now supports an expanded fleet.

Each submarine is estimated to cost approximately one billion euros. Israel holds an option to purchase a seventh submarine from Germany at the original contract price, an option yet to be exercised. The security establishment advises utilizing this option promptly to avoid future price increases and subsequently initiating the procurement of an eighth submarine. Senior officials indicated that while the comprehensive plan will be deferred due to upcoming elections, the defense establishment intends to formally present and advocate for its implementation with the next government.