Senior Israeli Intelligence Official Warns of Turkish Military Buildup Near Israel

A senior Israeli intelligence official issued a rare warning about the growing Turkish military presence near Israel, cautioning that without clear red lines set against Ankara, Israel could face Turkish tanks in the Golan Heights and Turkish frigates off the coast of Caesarea in the future. The warning comes amid Turkey's expanding military foothold in Syria, where it is rebuilding a new Syrian army dependent on Ankara for operational and technological support. This development could grant Turkey new strategic depth against Israel and restrict the Israeli Air Force's freedom of action.

The official highlighted the immediate threat from the sea, noting Turkey's significant naval buildup in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey currently operates dozens of frigates, destroyers, amphibious landing vessels, and 12 submarines, with plans to add six more submarines and 24 new frigates and destroyers. In contrast, the Israeli Navy is smaller, with 15 missile ships, six submarines, and about 12 patrol boats, though Israel plans to enhance its maritime defense with naval helicopters.

Jerusalem views Turkey's growing influence in Syria with concern, especially as Iran and Russia's presence there has waned, leaving a power vacuum now filled by Turkey. Unlike Iran, Turkey is a regional power with a large conventional army, accepted by the Syrian government, and maintains close ties with Washington. Israel desires stability in Syria but opposes the reestablishment of a strong Syrian military under Turkish patronage that could limit Israeli air operations.

The political cost of confronting Turkey is high, given its NATO membership, advanced defense industry, and close relations with former U.S. President Donald Trump. While Israel and Turkey share interests in preventing Iran's return to Syria, the rise of ISIS, or Syria's collapse, the challenge lies in defining clear boundaries for Turkish military deployment in Syria to avoid direct conflict between Israeli and Turkish forces.

The Israeli Air Force's recent strikes in Syria, including at Abu al-Duhur, may reflect efforts to prevent permanent Turkish military entrenchment before it solidifies. However, military action alone cannot deter Ankara's strategic interests, making diplomatic efforts to delineate operational limits crucial for Israel's security.