Israel Security Establishment Recommends Expanding Submarine Fleet to Eight Vessels

Israel's security establishment is recommending that the political leadership increase the Navy's submarine fleet from six to eight submarines in active service. This new assessment, reported by Doron Kadosh of Galei Tzahal on September 22, comes amid Turkey's rapid expansion of its submarine forces. Israel is closely monitoring Turkey's naval modernization program, which currently includes approximately 14 submarines with plans to reach 18 with new Reis-class boats based on the German Type 214 design.

Currently, Israel has five submarines operational, with the sixth, the INS "Dragon," recently delivered from Germany and en route to Haifa. The German company TKMS officially announced the handover of the "Dragon" to the Israeli Navy on September 1. The recommendation is not merely for replacement submarines but for an actual expansion of the fleet to maintain eight operational submarines simultaneously.

The proposed first step is to acquire a seventh submarine, followed by the procurement process for an eighth. Galei Tzahal reports that Israel holds an unexercised contractual option for an additional submarine and the security establishment urges a decision before costs increase further. In 2022, Israel contracted with Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems for three new "Dakar"-class submarines, primarily intended to replace older Dolphin-class vessels rather than increase the total number.

The question of submarine fleet size is particularly sensitive due to the "Submarine Affair" (Case 3000) investigation. A state commission found that previous proposals to increase the fleet to seven submarines lacked proper professional staff work, with the security system having previously deemed five, then six, submarines sufficient. The current recommendation stems from a revised strategic assessment following the October 7, 2023, events and Turkey's military buildup.

Senior security officials emphasized that a decision on such a significant and costly procurement program is unlikely before the next Knesset elections. The recommendation is expected to be presented to the post-election political leadership for formal review and approval. No official comments have been made regarding Galei Tzahal's report.