Israel Seeks to Expand Submarine Fleet Amid Turkish Naval Buildup

Israel's defense establishment is closely monitoring the rapid expansion of Turkey's submarine fleet, which is acquiring new German-made advanced submarines similar to those designated for Israel. Turkey currently operates 14 submarines and is expected to reach 18 in the coming years. In contrast, Israel's fleet consists of five submarines, with a sixth expected to arrive soon.

In response to the changing maritime landscape and Turkey's naval growth, the defense establishment has formulated a professional recommendation for the political leadership. The recommendation, reported by Galgalatz, suggests Israel should aim to operate eight submarines in the coming years. This would involve not just replacing older vessels with new ones but an actual increase in the number of active submarines.

The financial implications of this expansion are significant, with each submarine costing approximately one billion euros. Israel holds an option to purchase a seventh submarine at this price under its existing contract with Germany. Defense officials recommend exercising this option, at least as a first step, partly due to potential price increases, and subsequently proceeding with the acquisition of an eighth submarine.

The size of the submarine fleet is a particularly sensitive issue in Israel, partly due to the "submarine affair" investigation. A state commission of inquiry found that professional staff work was lacking regarding the determination of the navy's required fleet size. The defense establishment's stance has evolved over the years, initially deeming five submarines sufficient before later supporting an increase to six. The current shift in position is influenced by the post-October 7 security reality and Turkey's naval buildup.

Despite the recommendation, senior defense officials indicate that such a large-scale acquisition is unlikely to occur before the upcoming elections. They intend to advance the issue with the political leadership chosen after the elections and ensure the plan is implemented in an orderly manner.