New Poll Shows Arab Parties Gaining Seats, Likud Declines

A new poll published by the Israeli newspaper Maariv indicates that Arab parties would collectively win 12 seats in the Knesset if elections were held today. The Joint Arab List is projected to secure 7 seats, while the United Arab List is expected to gain 5.

The poll also shows the ruling coalition bloc strengthening slightly to 50 seats, an increase of three seats from a previous survey. This gain is attributed to the new "Ofer Vinter Party" successfully crossing the electoral threshold.

Despite the coalition's overall gain, the Likud party has seen a decline, dropping one seat to 19. This result marks the lowest showing for Likud in Maariv polls since May 29, 2025, over a year ago. The poll attributes the coalition's modest increase to the inclusion of the Ofer Vinter Party, rather than a significant surge in support for existing coalition members.

In terms of individual party performance, "Yesh Atid" leads with 25 seats, followed by Likud with 19, and "Yahad" with 14. Other parties projected to cross the threshold include the Democrats (10 seats), Yisrael Beiteinu (9 seats), Otzma Yehudit (8 seats), United Torah Judaism (7 seats), Shas (7 seats), the Joint Arab List (7 seats), the United Arab List (5 seats), Religious Zionism (5 seats), and the Ofer Vinter Party (4 seats).

The opposition bloc of Zionist parties is projected to win 58 seats, compared to the coalition's 50. The poll also noted a decrease in undecided voters, from 11% to 7.5%, following the finalization of electoral lists.

In a separate question regarding leadership suitability, Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu by 12 percentage points, with 50% of respondents viewing Eisenkot as the most suitable candidate for Prime Minister, versus 38% for Netanyahu. Naftali Bennett also shows a lead over Netanyahu, with 45% favoring Bennett and 40% favoring Netanyahu.

Regarding potential emigration, 79% of respondents stated they would remain in Israel even if their preferred party was not part of the government, while 9% considered leaving, and 12% were undecided.