New Party Surpasses Threshold in Poll, Netanyahu's Likud Sees Historic Low

A new poll conducted by Maariv indicates that the new party formed by Ofer Winter has successfully passed the electoral threshold, a significant development in the upcoming elections. The coalition bloc has seen a slight increase in support, but the Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, has reached its lowest point in over a year, garnering only 19 seats in the survey. The opposition bloc of Zionist parties collectively holds 58 seats, while Arab parties secure 12. The percentage of undecided voters has decreased from 11% to 7.5% following the finalization of party lists.

In a hypothetical election scenario, the poll shows "Yesh Atid" leading with 25 seats, followed by Likud with 19. Other parties projected to pass the threshold include "B'Ged" with 14 seats, "HaDemocratim" with 10, "Yisrael Beiteinu" with 9, "Otzma Yehudit" with 8, and "Yahadut HaTorah" and "Shas" both with 7 seats. Several smaller parties, including "HaMeyuladot VeHaKalkalit," "Blue and White," "Noam LeYisrael," and "HaTzibur HaHaredi," failed to meet the required 3.25% electoral threshold.

Regarding leadership suitability, Gadi Eisenkot maintains a double-digit lead over Benjamin Netanyahu, with 50% viewing Eisenkot as the more suitable candidate for Prime Minister compared to Netanyahu's 38%. Naftali Bennett also slightly outperforms Netanyahu on this metric, with 45% favoring Bennett versus 40% for Netanyahu.

The survey also revealed that a significant majority (79%) of respondents would remain in Israel even if their chosen party does not lead the government after the elections. However, 9% are considering leaving the country under such circumstances, with an additional 12% undecided. Among opposition party voters, approximately 15% are contemplating emigration if their parties are not in power, though only 2% are certain about this decision.

The poll was conducted on September 9-10, with 4,329 individuals invited to participate and 601 respondents (14%) completing the survey. The margin of error is 4%.