Israeli Polls Show Arab Parties Gaining 11-14 Knesset Seats

Recent opinion polls released by major Israeli news channels (Channels 12, 13, 14, and i24NEWS) indicate a shifting balance of power among parliamentary blocs, with Arab parties expected to play a crucial role in the next political landscape. All four polls showed Arab party lists surpassing the electoral threshold, with their total projected seats ranging between 11 and 14.

Channel 13 projected the highest representation for Arab parties, with 14 seats: 8 for the Joint List (Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad) and 6 for the United Arab List (Ra'am) led by Mansour Abbas. Channel 14 predicted 12 seats for Arab parties, split evenly with 6 seats for the Hadash-Ta'al-Balad alliance and 6 for Ra'am. i24NEWS also projected 12 seats, with 7 for the Joint List and 5 for Ra'am. Channel 12 showed the lowest figure, with 11 seats for Arab parties, allocating 7 to the Joint List led by Yousef Jabareen and 4 to Ra'am, placing it on the cusp of the threshold.

The polls also reflect ongoing political polarization. Channel 14 suggests the current right-wing bloc could secure a comfortable majority of 64 seats, versus 44 for the center-left opposition and 12 for Arab parties. Channel 13 indicates a deadlock between the current coalition and the opposition, each with 53 seats, making the 14 projected seats for Arab parties decisive in forming an alternative government. Channel 12's poll places the 'Yesh Atid' party, led by Yair Lapid, ahead of the Likud party.