Poll Shows New Alliances Dim Likelihood of Opposition Forming Government

A new poll commissioned by Maariv newspaper and conducted by Lazar Research indicates that the Likud party, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, would secure 20 seats in the Knesset. The "Bayehad" bloc, comprising Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, is projected to win 15 seats. Yair Golan's "Democratim" party is expected to gain 10 seats, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu (NDI) 9 seats, and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit 8 seats.

Other parties polling include Yahadut HaTorah, Shas, and the joint Arab list (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad), each projected to receive 7 seats. Ra'am and the "Zionut Datit"-"Zeut" bloc, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin, are expected to get 5 seats each. Ofer Winter's "Amcha" party is projected to win 4 seats.

The poll attributes the current political landscape to recent alliances, specifically the inclusion of Balad in the joint Arab list and the union of Smotrich and Feiglin. These developments have resulted in the Jewish opposition parties collectively holding only 57 seats. The parties currently in the ruling coalition are projected to win 51 seats, while Arab parties, as a whole, are expected to secure 12 seats.