Poll Shows Coalition Bloc Weakening, Opposition Gaining Seats
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
A new poll for Maariv shows the Israeli coalition bloc weakening to 48 seats, while the opposition bloc gains to 54 seats. Naftali Bennett's party rises to 15 seats, and Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu in suitability for prime minister. The poll also indicates increased voter certainty and a public preference for a unity government in case of a deadlock.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Coalition bloc projected to win 48 seats, opposition bloc 54 seats in new Maariv poll.
- Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu in suitability for prime minister, 49% to 41%.
- Naftali Bennett's Together party gains two seats, reaching 15 seats.
- Am Ekh Israel party, led by Ofer Vinter, fails to pass electoral threshold.
- 81% of respondents are certain they will vote, an increase from the last election.
- 60% of Israelis prefer a unity government if no clear election winner emerges.
A recent poll conducted by Lazar Research for Maariv indicates a shift in the Israeli political landscape, with the current coalition bloc losing ground to the opposition. The coalition is projected to secure 48 seats, while the "change bloc" (opposition) is expected to garner 54 seats, a difference of six seats. The poll also revealed that the Am Ekh Israel party, led by Ofer Vinter, is currently failing to pass the electoral threshold with only 3% support. Other parties, including Noam LeYisrael and Tzumet Beit Yisrael, also remain below the threshold.
Within the coalition bloc, the Likud, Shas, and Religious Zionism parties are each projected to gain one seat, while United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit are expected to lose one seat each. Overall, the coalition bloc has lost three seats compared to the previous poll. In contrast, Naftali Bennett's Together party has gained two seats, reaching 15, and the Democrats have strengthened by one seat to ten. Yishar! led by Gadi Eisenkot maintains 21 seats, and Yisrael Beiteinu holds eight.
The poll's outcome is significantly influenced by the potential success of the new economic reservists party, which is barely crossing the electoral threshold with four seats. If this party fails to pass, the coalition bloc's projected seats would increase to 50, the opposition bloc to 56, and Arab parties to 14.
In terms of leadership suitability, Gadi Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu with 49% to 41%, and Naftali Bennett also holds a slight advantage over Netanyahu, with 45% to 43%. Netanyahu still leads Avigdor Lieberman in this metric, 44% to 39%.
The survey also noted an increased public willingness to vote, with 81% of respondents certain they will participate, up from 71% in the 2022 elections. This certainty is higher among opposition voters (87%) than coalition voters (83%). Among Arab party voters, the percentage of those certain to vote rose from 74% to 81%, potentially impacting their electoral strength.
Furthermore, 60% of respondents prefer a unity government if no clear election outcome emerges. Of those, 33% favor a leader from the change bloc, while 19% prefer Netanyahu. Conversely, 23% would prefer new elections in case of a political deadlock, a decrease from 27% in the previous poll. The survey was conducted between October 19-22 among 1,048 respondents aged 18 and above, with a maximum margin of error of 3%.
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