Poll: Ben-Gvir Could Lose Quarter of Voters if He Unites with Smotrich

With three days remaining until the deadline for party list submissions, potential electoral alliances are a major focus. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly working to unite Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party with Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism.

A News 13 poll released Friday suggests that if such a union occurs, 73% of voters would support the combined list. However, the poll indicates that 18% of voters would defect to other parties within the bloc, 3% would vote for parties outside the bloc, and 6% are undecided.

Specifically among Ben-Gvir's current supporters, only 63% would vote for a unified list, a figure described as low. A significant 24% of his voters would switch to another party, indicating Ben-Gvir could lose a substantial portion of his base.

Meanwhile, parties in the "change bloc" are also considering mergers to avoid wasting votes. A poll of potential voters for a joint list of Benny Gantz's National Unity party and Gideon Sa'ar's New Hope party showed it would garner fewer mandates than if they ran separately. In that scenario, 76% of their combined voters would remain loyal, 10% would move to other parties in the bloc, and 3% would vote for the coalition bloc.

The poll also surveyed voter anxieties. 66% of coalition bloc voters expressed strong fear or concern about the opposition bloc forming a government, while 53% of change bloc voters fear a Netanyahu-led government. Among Arab party voters, 19% expressed strong fear of a Netanyahu government, with another 24% concerned.

Regarding voter turnout certainty, 74% of all voters are sure they will vote, with 15% likely to vote. Among change bloc voters, 82% are certain to vote, compared to 77% of coalition voters and 75% of Arab party voters.

Finally, the poll revealed a dramatic tie between the two major blocs, with both the Netanyahu bloc and the Gantz bloc projected to receive 53 mandates.