National Religious Voters Divided, Favoring Netanyahu Bloc Despite Security Concerns

A new poll reveals that the national religious sector in Israel, estimated at 12-13 Knesset seats, remains largely loyal to the Netanyahu-led coalition parties, despite significant concerns about issues like the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption. The survey, conducted by Dialog, shows the united list of Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin leading with 30% of the vote, followed by the Likud at 17% and Otzma Yehudit at 12%. This indicates a strong preference for right-wing security policies within the sector, even as some express dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the ultra-Orthodox draft and the aftermath of the October 7th attacks.

Notably, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's party garnered only 3%, a sharp decline from his 2021 performance where he secured 27% of the national religious vote. This suggests a significant shift in voter allegiance, potentially linked to Bennett's changing political alliances. Other parties like Yisrael Beiteinu, Blue and White, and Noam received minimal support, with 13% of respondents still undecided.

The poll also highlighted key issues influencing voter decisions. Security policy emerged as the most significant concern for 35% of respondents, followed by Jewish identity at 25%. While the ultra-Orthodox draft exemption is a point of contention for many, only 15% cited it as their primary voting consideration. Settler policies in Judea and Samaria were seen as representative of their views by 68% of respondents, and security policy by 61%.

Interviews with voters reveal a complex picture. Some, like Moti Cohen, express strong support for Smotrich's policies on settlement and religious matters, viewing him as the best representative of national religious values. Others, like Liad Zamir, feel disillusioned, believing the current leadership failed to prevent the October 7th attacks and has not adequately addressed the draft issue, leading them to consider more centrist options. Aviad, a resident of Ofra, voices deep disappointment with the government's handling of the draft and the war's prolonged duration, contemplating a vote for opposition parties despite his right-wing leanings.

Conversely, some voters, like Eitan Neuman, are looking beyond the Netanyahu bloc, favoring a more unifying, state-centric approach and expressing concern about Netanyahu's personal leadership. Sarah Eliash, a founder of Kedumim, seeks a "Zionist unity government" and is wary of the current "bloc politics," fearing it could lead to the nation's downfall.