Increased Competition on Flights to New York Expected to Stabilize Prices

Starting next week, competition for flights between Israel and New York is set to increase significantly with the return of major U.S. carriers Delta and United to Ben Gurion Airport. Delta is scheduled to resume flights on September 6, followed by United on September 8. Israeli airline Israir is also expected to join the route on October 19, with American Airlines planning a return by late March 2027. For a long period, El Al held a near-monopoly on this highly sought-after route, with Arkia offering limited competition, leading to accusations of price gouging.

Despite the influx of new carriers, experts suggest that a dramatic drop in prices is unlikely in the immediate future. Nir Mazor, Vice President of Aviation Relations, stated that while the increased competition is welcome, immediate price plunges are not expected. He anticipates prices around $800-$1,000 during flexible dates and shoulder seasons, with peak holiday periods remaining high due to sustained demand. Gil Haan, CEO of Eshet Tours, offers a slightly more optimistic outlook, predicting that significant price impacts will be felt after the November elections and the end of peak seasons, when increased supply meets seasonal demand drops.

Dr. Uzi Freund-Feinstein, an aviation expert, explains that the extent of price reduction depends on the scale of operations and aircraft size, not just the number of airlines. He notes that U.S. carriers will likely start with limited frequencies due to the weaker winter season and the need to ensure market stability. A full increase in seat availability and subsequent price drops are more probable by next summer. Passenger confidence in stable operations also plays a role, especially after past flight cancellations due to security concerns.

Freund-Feinstein also predicts that foreign airlines, particularly Israir, will offer competitive pricing to attract passengers. El Al is expected to respond with modest price reductions to retain customers, while price-sensitive travelers may opt for Israir and other foreign carriers. Current price checks show variability, with no single airline consistently offering the lowest fares across different dates and months.