Increased Competition on New York Flights May Not Immediately Lower Prices

Starting next week, competition for flights to New York from Ben Gurion Airport is set to increase significantly as major U.S. carriers Delta and United are scheduled to resume services. Delta is expected to return on September 6th, followed by United on September 8th. Israeli airline Israir is also slated to join the route on October 19th, adding to existing carriers El Al and Arkia. American Airlines has indicated a return by late March 2027.

For a long time, the New York route was largely dominated by El Al, with only minor competition from Arkia. This lack of competition was often cited as a reason for high ticket prices. However, experts suggest that the influx of new carriers may not lead to an immediate dramatic drop in fares.

Nir Mazor, Deputy CEO of Aviation Relations, stated that while the return of Delta and United and the entry of Israir won't necessarily cause prices to plummet, they will restore welcome competition. He anticipates that during flexible dates and shoulder seasons, tickets might be found around $800-$1,000, while prices during holidays and peak periods will likely remain high due to the immense demand for New York. Gil Haan, CEO of Eshet Tours, offers a slightly more optimistic outlook, predicting that significant price impacts will be felt after the November elections, following the end of peak summer and holiday seasons, when increased supply meets seasonal demand drops.

Dr. Uzi Freund-Feinstein, an aviation expert, explains that the extent of price drops and seat availability depends on the scale of operations and aircraft size, not just the number of airlines. Initially, U.S. carriers are expected to offer limited frequencies due to the weaker winter season and the need to ensure market stability. He believes a more substantial increase in seat availability and a subsequent price decrease are more likely by next summer. Additionally, passenger confidence in stable operations, following past flight cancellations due to security concerns, will play a role. Freund-Feinstein also predicts that foreign airlines and Israir will offer competitive prices to attract passengers, prompting El Al to respond with modest price reductions while aiming to retain higher-paying customers.