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Israeli TV Polls Missed Likud's Strength Ahead of Election
Major Israeli television channels and pollsters significantly miscalculated the results of the election for the 26th Knesset, consistently underestimating the strength of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party. For months, Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13 projected that Likud would win only about 20 seats, while early results and updated exit polls showed the party securing 27 to 28 seats.
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What happened
- 01Major Israeli TV channels Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13 underestimated the Likud party, predicting 20 to 21 seats compared to early results of 27 to 28.
- 02Direct Polls and i24NEWS more accurately forecast the Likud's strength, predicting 26 to 27 seats ahead of the election.
- 03The Netanyahu bloc is projected to win 53 to 57 seats, falling short of the 62 seats predicted by Channel 14's poll.
- 04Gadi Eisenkot's bloc garnered around 48 seats, while Naftali Bennett's party performed weaker than pre-election polls had indicated.
- 05Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Likud the largest party in the 26th Knesset and claimed a right-wing majority.
- 06Channel 13 political correspondent Moriyah Asraf criticized the media and pollsters for failing to understand public sentiment.
- 07Experts attributed the widespread polling errors to discrepancies in sampling, data collection methodologies, and the handling of undecided voters.
In contrast, polls by i24NEWS and Direct Polls, led by Tzuriel Sharon, had more accurately predicted 26 to 27 seats for Likud. Channel 14's poll by Shlomo Filber was also closer, predicting 30 seats for Likud, though it misjudged the overall bloc sizes. While pre-election polls predicted the Netanyahu bloc would reach 62 seats, early counts placed it at 57, with projections dropping to 55 or 53 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot's bloc garnered around 48 seats. Naftali Bennett's party also performed weaker than polls had indicated.
Following the release of the results, Prime Minister Netanyahu declared Likud the largest party and claimed a right-wing majority, while Gadi Eisenkot called for a government reflecting the public's vote for change. Channel 13 political correspondent Moriyah Asraf sharply criticized the media and pollsters, stating they failed to gauge the public's mood and called for deep self-reflection within Israeli media organizations.
Summarized by baba from the reports of 4 newsrooms. Updated
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Israeli TV Polls Missed Likud's Strength Ahead of Election
