Turkey Expands Influence in Syria Amid Israeli Concerns Over Strategic Weapons

Turkey's military presence in Syria, established during the civil war years of 2017-2018, continues to deepen despite some reduction in direct troop deployment. Ankara has maintained influence primarily in northern Syria's Idlib region, supporting rebel factions militarily and economically to counter Kurdish forces. According to Dr. Carmit Valensi, senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Turkey has also filled a power vacuum by aiding the Syrian army's reconstruction with weapons, training, and logistical support.

The recent Israeli airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur base in Syria has reignited tensions between Israel and Turkey, highlighting concerns in Israel about Turkey's growing military foothold. Dr. Valensi emphasized Israel's fear that the arrival of Turkish strategic weapons, including drones and defense systems, could threaten Israel's freedom of action in Syrian airspace and complicate potential conflicts involving Iran. Additionally, there is apprehension that Turkey might establish a Sunni extremist axis hostile to Israel.

Dr. Galia Lindenstrauss, also from INSS, warned that Israel's strike might backfire by pushing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad closer to Turkey, potentially accelerating Ankara's military influence in Syria. She noted that Turkey has a vested interest in Assad's regime's stability and views Syria as a strategic hub. Despite the escalation, Turkish officials appear to interpret Israeli actions as part of Israeli domestic politics, avoiding harsh retaliation to prevent aiding Netanyahu's election campaign.

Both experts caution against overstating Turkey's control, noting Assad's reluctance to be subordinate to any foreign power and the complex, sometimes discordant relations between Damascus and Ankara. The situation remains fluid, with Israel closely monitoring Turkey's moves amid broader regional power struggles.