Turkey Expands Influence in Syria Amid Israeli Concerns Over Strategic Weapons

Turkey's military and political presence in Syria, though established during the civil war years of 2017-2018, has recently gained renewed attention following an Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur base. This attack has highlighted the ongoing struggle for influence in post-Assad Syria and raised concerns in Israel about Turkey's expanding role.

Dr. Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), explained that Turkey initially secured a foothold in northern Syria by supporting rebel groups and establishing military bases to counter Kurdish forces. Over time, Turkey has also assisted in rebuilding Syria's military capabilities through arms supplies, training, and logistical support, filling a power vacuum as the Syrian state sought to recover.

Despite a slight reduction in direct Turkish military presence, Ankara continues to deepen its influence by aiding the new Syrian regime. Valensi warned that Israel fears the arrival of strategic Turkish weaponry, including drones and defense systems, which could threaten Israel's freedom of operation in Syrian airspace. There is also concern about Turkey potentially creating a Sunni extremist corridor hostile to Israel.

Dr. Galia Lindenstrauss, another INSS expert on Turkish foreign policy, cautioned that Israel's recent strike might backfire by pushing the Syrian regime closer to Turkey and accelerating Ankara's military ambitions in Syria. She noted that while Turkey has historically strained relations with Israel, the current tensions could escalate regional instability.

Both experts urged caution against overestimating Turkey's influence, emphasizing that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not fully subordinate to Ankara and maintains complex relations with multiple actors. They also suggested that Turkey may downplay the Israeli strike to avoid escalating conflict, interpreting it as part of Israeli domestic politics rather than a direct challenge.

The situation remains fluid, with Israel closely monitoring Turkey's strategic moves in Syria amid broader regional tensions involving Iran and other actors.