Internal Likud Polls Warn Tal Gilboa's High Ranking Could Cost Seats; Netanyahu Trusts Voters

Ahead of the Likud party primaries, internal polls presented to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed concerns that placing Knesset member Tal Gilboa high on the party list could cost Likud 2 to 3 seats in the general election. The data showed Gilboa enjoys significant support and is expected to rank in the top twenty, but a top-tier position might alienate key voter segments. During an internal discussion, a recommendation emerged to moderate support among party members to prevent her from securing a leading spot.

Netanyahu described the findings as "disturbing data" but chose not to intervene directly in the candidate ranking process. Instead, he conveyed confidence in the party members, stating he "trusts the members to make the right decisions in the primaries." This approach signals a hands-off stance while subtly influencing voter behavior.

The concern over Gilboa's placement follows a "Ulpan Shishi" poll by the Medgam Institute, which showed nearly 40% of Likud voters consider her essential for the Knesset list, surpassing even Speaker Amir Ohana, who received 25.1%. However, this poll surveyed all Likud voters, not just registered party members eligible to vote in the primaries, thus reflecting broader public sentiment rather than the internal dynamics that shape the final list.

The competition for spots on the Likud list is intense, with only about 14 realistic slots available due to current seat projections and Netanyahu's reserved placements. This means roughly half of the current Knesset members and ministers risk losing their seats. Other popular figures in the poll include Defense Minister Israel Katz (18.1%), Economy Minister Nir Barkat (17.8%), Transportation Minister Miri Regev (15%), and Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Shikli (13%).

Conversely, several senior ministers face low support, including Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi (4.7%), Education Minister Yoav Kish (4.2%), Coalition Chair Ophir Katz (3.5%), and Environmental Protection Minister Idit Silman (2.9%), placing their re-election prospects in jeopardy.