Internal Likud Polls Warn Tal Gilboa’s High Ranking Could Cost Seats; Netanyahu Trusts Voters

Ahead of the Likud party primaries, internal polls presented to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed concerns that placing Knesset member Tal Gilboa high on the party list could cost Likud 2 to 3 seats in the general elections. The data showed Gilboa enjoys significant support and is expected to rank in the top twenty, but her elevation to the top tier might alienate key voter segments.

During a recent internal discussion, party leaders debated strategies to moderate support for Gilboa among registered party members to prevent her from securing a leading position. Netanyahu described the poll findings as "disturbing" but chose not to intervene directly, instead expressing confidence in the party members to make the right decisions in the primaries.

The concern over Gilboa’s ranking follows a "Ulpan Shishi" poll by the Midgam Institute, which found that nearly 40% of Likud voters view her as one of the top three candidates who must be on the Knesset list, surpassing even Speaker Amir Ohana, who received 25.1%. However, this poll surveyed all Likud voters, not just registered members eligible to vote in the primaries, reflecting broader public sentiment rather than the internal party dynamics.

The competition for spots on the Likud list is intense, with only about 14 realistic slots available due to Netanyahu’s reserved placements and current seat projections. This means many incumbent MKs and ministers risk losing their positions. Other popular figures in the poll include Defense Minister Israel Katz (18.1%), Economy Minister Nir Barkat (17.8%), Transportation Minister Miri Regev (15.0%), and Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli (13.0%).

Conversely, several senior ministers received low support, placing them in precarious positions. Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi garnered only 4.7%, Education Minister Yoav Kish 4.2%, Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz 3.5%, and Environmental Protection Minister Idit Silman 2.9%. The internal tension highlights the challenges Netanyahu faces in balancing party unity with electoral strategy ahead of the primaries.