Super El Niño Brings Rare Summer Rains and Flood Risks to Israel This Weekend

Israel is expected to experience unusually heavy summer rains this weekend, driven by the emerging "Super El Niño" climate phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean. According to the Israeli Meteorological Service, these intense showers are rare for mid-August and may cause flash floods in parts of the Jordan Valley, Judean Desert, and southern Dead Sea region.

While light drizzles occasionally occur in August, significant rainfall of 5 to 10 millimeters is uncommon and typically happens only every 5 to 10 years, mostly in northern and central areas. The last notable summer rain event was in August 2022 near the Hula Valley and Golan Heights, where 10.4 millimeters were recorded. However, double-digit rainfall amounts in southern regions like Jerusalem and the Dead Sea are extremely rare or unprecedented.

The forecast predicts cooler air and increased humidity arriving from Greece, leading to rain mainly on Saturday afternoon across eastern Israel, from the Golan Heights through the Jordan Valley to the northern Arava. High-resolution models indicate strong rain intensities with localized flood risks in dry riverbeds. The Super El Niño is already affecting weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, causing extreme heat waves in Western Europe and cooler air shifts toward Turkey, Greece, and Israel.

Thursday will see partly cloudy skies with a slight temperature drop, though heatwaves will persist in many areas. Friday will bring more typical seasonal temperatures and light rain showers in northern and central regions, easing the recent heat. Saturday and Sunday will have partly cloudy skies with local rain mainly in northern and eastern Israel, and isolated thunderstorms possible in the east. The Meteorological Service plans to issue detailed warnings as the situation develops.