IDF Chief Israel Katz Falls Outside Top 10 in Likud Primary Poll Among Free Voters

A recent poll conducted among free voters within the Likud party reveals significant shifts ahead of the upcoming primaries, with several veteran ministers and Knesset members losing ground. Notably, Defense Minister Israel Katz, who was recently granted a reserved spot on the party list to focus on security matters, ranks only 13th in the poll with 40.5% support, placing him outside the top ten. This ranking contrasts with his secured position on the list, highlighting a decline in his popularity among the party's free voters.

The survey, carried out by Dr. Nimrod Nir of the Agam Institute between August 6 and 10, sampled 1,062 Likud members eligible to vote. It showed Speaker of the Knesset Amir Ohana leading with 73% support, followed by Tali Gottlieb at 70%, and Boaz Bismuth at 69.2%. Other prominent figures such as Eli Cohen, Moshe Saada, and Amichai Shikli also scored well, while veteran politicians like Nir Barkat, Yoav Kisch, and Avi Dichter ranked lower, with Kisch at 16th and Dichter at 18th. Chairman of the Likud Center Haim Katz and MK David Bitan also found themselves in low positions, at 35th and 32nd respectively.

The poll suggests that if Likud secures around 30 seats in the next Knesset, approximately half of the current MKs and ministers running may not return, including some who do not compete or have reserved slots. This scenario points to a potentially dramatic primary battle not only for top list positions but also for the political survival of well-known party members. Dr. Nir noted that the Likud electorate deciding the list is becoming more hawkish and religious, showing less loyalty to veteran MKs and a preference for new faces. He also emphasized that the poll reflects only the free voters and does not account for organized party members or internal deals, which could significantly affect the final primary results.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted on reserved slots on the list to balance these internal dynamics, aiming to maintain stability amid these shifts. The evolving preferences within Likud's base underscore the challenges facing established politicians as the party prepares for the 2026 Knesset elections.