Likud Primary Poll Reveals Leadership Battle and Divided Voter Preferences

A new large-scale poll ahead of the Likud primaries indicates a fierce leadership contest and significant shifts within the party's ranks. According to the survey, only about 20 current Likud ministers and Knesset members are expected to secure spots on the next party list. The poll highlights a clear divide between registered party members and general Likud voters regarding leadership preferences and government direction.

Among registered members, Amir Ohana leads decisively with 73% support, followed closely by Tali Gottlieb at 70% and Boaz Bismuth at 69.2%. Ohana also leads among loyal Likud voters, but among swing and less committed voters, Nir Barkat is the preferred candidate. Other notable figures include Israel Katz, who ranks sixth among members with 10.3% but fourth among voters with 11.3%, and is placed fifth in the simulated party list due to reserved slots. Differences also appear in support bases: Gottlieb and Shlomo Karhi are stronger among members, while Barkat, Yariv Levin, and Miki Zohar enjoy greater popularity among voters.

The survey reveals contrasting views on the future government. Two-thirds (66.1%) of party members favor a "full right-wing government," whereas only 45.1% of Likud voters share this preference. Conversely, 54.9% of voters support a unity government including center-right factions, compared to just 33.9% of members. Pollsters interpret these gaps as underscoring the strategic importance of reserved list slots to broaden the party's appeal beyond its core membership.

On the issue of military conscription, there is strong consensus across both groups supporting increased IDF enlistment even at the expense of Torah study, with 66.8% of members and 80.4% of voters in favor. The poll reflects internal tensions and evolving dynamics within Likud as it prepares for its upcoming primaries and the post-Netanyahu leadership era.