Iran Gains Unprecedented Control Over Strait of Hormuz in New Oman Agreement

Iran and Oman are nearing the final stages of signing an agreement that will regulate ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage between the two countries. This deal marks a significant shift from the pre-war status quo, granting Iran unprecedented control over the strait and potentially providing Tehran with a permanent leverage point over the West amid ongoing tensions.

Under the proposed agreement, ships entering the strait will pass through Iranian waters, while those exiting will navigate Omani waters. Previously, vessels used a central route between the two nations, which has been heavily mined during recent conflicts. The parties plan to clear these mines to restore safe passage. Additionally, all ships will be required to coordinate their transit with Iranian authorities, a new requirement that did not exist before the conflict.

Financially, the agreement initially waives transit fees for 60 days, after which negotiations on charges will commence. Iranian sources have indicated the inclusion of "service fees" to cover environmental impacts, security, and labor costs, with revenues shared equally between Iran and Oman. Reports suggest Iran seeks to charge between 5% and 7% of cargo value, while Oman considers about 3%, despite U.S. opposition to any fees. Before the war, passage through the strait was free of charge.

These three fundamental changes, altered shipping routes, Iranian control over ship coordination, and potential transit fees, significantly enhance Iran's strategic and economic position in the region. The agreement could provide Tehran with a new source of income to aid its economic recovery following months of conflict with the U.S. and Israel, while solidifying its influence over one of the world's most vital maritime chokepoints.