Gadi Eizenkot’s Party Leads New Poll as Netanyahu Gains Support

A new poll published on Monday by Channel 12 News shows that if elections were held today, Gadi Eizenkot’s party, Yashar!, would be the largest in Israel with 24 seats, up one from last week. The former IDF Chief of Staff continues to strengthen his position, also leading in the prime minister preference poll. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party also gained one seat, standing at 23 mandates, while Naftali Bennett’s Yachdut HaBrit lost one seat, now at 15.

Other parties saw minor shifts: the Democrats increased to 11 seats, Israel Beytenu dropped to 9, and Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Otzma Yehudit remained steady at 8 seats each. The Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am each hold 5 seats, while Religious Zionism declined to 4 seats. Smaller parties like Beit Tzioni-Miluimnikim, Balad, and Blue and White remain below the electoral threshold.

The bloc distribution remains unchanged, with opposition Zionist parties holding 59 seats and coalition parties 51. Including Arab parties, the opposition bloc strengthens to 69 seats. No side can form a government without Arab party support. Poll respondents favored a government supported externally by an Arab party if the anti-Netanyahu bloc fails to reach 61 seats.

In hypothetical scenarios involving new party formations and alliances, Yashar! and Likud could each reach 25 seats, while Otzma Yehudit could rise to 9 seats. Religious Zionism might fall below the threshold in these scenarios. The opposition bloc could gain a seat to 60, while the coalition would drop to 50.

Regarding prime minister preferences, Eizenkot leads with 43% support, unchanged from last week, while Netanyahu’s support rose to 37%. Netanyahu maintains a lead over Bennett with 39% to 35%. Opposition voters mostly prefer forming a government with Arab party support if their bloc falls short, while coalition voters largely approve of Netanyahu’s agreements with ultra-Orthodox parties and want them included in the next coalition.