New Poll Shows Trooper and Handel Cross Electoral Threshold, Netanyahu and Esnekot Lose Seats

A new Kan News poll published on Sunday reveals shifts in Israel's political landscape ahead of upcoming elections. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and Gadi Eizenkot's Yisrael party both lose one Knesset seat, with Eizenkot leading Netanyahu 22 to 21 mandates. Naftali Bennett's Yachdav party remains steady at 15 seats. Itamar Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit rises by two seats to 10 mandates, while Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu drops one seat to nine, matching the Democratic camp led by Yair Golan. Shas and United Torah Judaism hold eight seats each, and the Arab parties Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am maintain five seats apiece. Religious Zionism has four seats, and notably, a new party led by Hili Trooper and Yoaz Hendel crosses the electoral threshold for the first time, securing four seats. Parties like Balad and the Benny Gantz-Dedi Simchi alliance fail to pass the threshold.

The Netanyahu bloc decreases to 51 seats, while the opposition bloc excluding Arab parties holds 55 seats. The poll also tested a scenario with two new right-wing parties led by Ofer Winter and a trio of Gilad Erdan, Ayelet Shaked, and Yuli Edelstein. In this scenario, only Winter's party crosses the threshold with four seats, causing Trooper and Hendel's party to fall below the threshold. Netanyahu's seats drop to 20, Eizenkot rises to 24, and the Netanyahu bloc shrinks to 48 seats.

Regarding leadership suitability, Netanyahu leads Bennett with 36% to 21%, and narrowly edges Eizenkot 36% to 35%. Eizenkot leads Bennett 30% to 21%. Public satisfaction with the current government's performance is low: 64% disapprove of war management, 73% criticize handling of crime and internal security, 76% are dissatisfied with economic and cost-of-living policies, and 73% disapprove of the investigation into the October 7 failure. Opposition performance is also rated poorly by 76% of respondents. Over half (56%) believe Israel's situation has worsened compared to four years ago.