Eisenkot Faces Four Scenarios in Government Formation Amid Deep Divides

By كل العرب

Translated & summarized from Alarab by baba

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Arabic · 5 newsrooms covering

Gadi Eisenkot is expected to be tasked by Israeli President Isaac Herzog with forming a new government, facing four potential scenarios amid deep political divisions. Key challenges include integrating Arab and Haredi parties, with disagreements over conscription laws and coalition composition. Options range from a government with external support from Arab parties and internal Haredi participation, to a minority government, a national unity government, or ultimately, failure to form a coalition, which would return the mandate to Benjamin Netanyahu.

The story in 6 lines · by baba

Gadi Eisenkot is tasked with forming Israel's next government, facing four potential coalition scenarios.
Key challenges include integrating Arab and Haredi parties, particularly regarding conscription laws.
One scenario involves a government with Haredi party participation and external support from an Arab party.
Another option is a minority government of 48 Knesset members, aiming for later expansion.
A national unity government between Eisenkot's and Netanyahu's blocs appears unlikely due to deep animosity.
Failure to form a government would likely return the mandate to Benjamin Netanyahu.

Eisenkot Faces Four Scenarios in Government Formation Amid Deep Divides — Editorial illustration generated by baba News, not a photograph of the event.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog is expected to task Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yamina Party, with forming the next government on Sunday, amidst significant political complexities and inter-party disagreements over the nature of the potential coalition and its participants. Eisenkot aims to explore all available options to establish a government that would end Benjamin Netanyahu's tenure. Four main scenarios are emerging: a government with support from Arab and Haredi parties, a scalable minority government, a national unity government, or failure to form any government.

Despite Eisenkot receiving recommendations from 67 Knesset members compared to Netanyahu's 46, this does not guarantee a stable parliamentary majority. Key disagreements persist regarding potential political partnerships, particularly concerning the involvement of Arab and Haredi parties. Eisenkot is set to begin coalition negotiations next week at the Dan Accadia Hotel in Herzliya, focusing initially on reaching understandings with the core parties of the "change bloc." He plans to negotiate with Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and Yair Golan before considering other parties.

Forming a government faces hurdles, as Lieberman opposes participation with Arab parties, while including Haredi parties conflicts with a key election pledge by the "change bloc" to enact a real conscription law for Haredim, ending their broad exemptions. This pledge clashes with the Haredi parties' stance on religious seminary students' military service.

The first scenario involves a government including the Haredi "United Torah Judaism" party, with external support from the United Arab List. This could provide 63 Knesset members' support, potentially allowing for an initial government to be stabilized and expanded later, possibly including the Shas party if Netanyahu's influence wanes. However, Lieberman's stance on Arab party participation and the Haredi conscription issue remain significant obstacles.

The second scenario proposes a minority government initially comprising 48 Knesset members from Bennett's, Lieberman's, and Golan's parties. This government would aim for expansion later, but Bennett and Lieberman reportedly do not favor such a setup, which would be vulnerable to collapse and legislative challenges. This scenario hinges on convincing key partners to accept a temporary lack of a majority.

The third scenario, a national unity government between Eisenkot's and Netanyahu's blocs, appears unlikely due to deep-seated animosity and conflicting public statements. Both sides have shown little willingness for serious negotiations, particularly regarding rotation of the premiership. Eisenkot has expressed confidence in forming an alternative government and is not keen on unity talks, while Opposition Leader Yair Lapid opposes negotiations amid Netanyahu's campaign against election results.

A less conventional idea involves Netanyahu serving as Prime Minister for two years before becoming President, with Eisenkot succeeding him. This hypothetical scenario has not gained traction and faces significant trust and logistical hurdles. The fourth scenario is Eisenkot's failure to form a government within the allotted time, which would likely lead to the mandate passing back to Netanyahu, who would then negotiate under different political circumstances.