Al-ShamsPolitics12:55

Four Scenarios for Eisenkot to Form Israeli Government Amid Arab, Haredi Talks

Translated & summarized from Al-Shams by baba

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Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog is expected to task Gadi Eisenkot with forming a new government after he received more recommendations than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Eisenkot faces significant challenges in uniting disparate parties, including Arab and Haredi factions, and navigating disagreements over the conscription law. Four potential scenarios for government formation include a coalition with Haredi parties and external Arab support, a minority government, a national unity government with Netanyahu, or the failure of negotiations leading to the mandate's return.

The story in 6 lines · by baba

Gadi Eisenkot is favored to receive the mandate to form Israel's next government with 67 recommendations, surpassing Benjamin Netanyahu's 46.
President Herzog will announce his decision on Sunday, initiating a 28-day period for coalition talks, extendable by 14 days.
Key challenges include uniting the 'change bloc' with Arab and Haredi parties and resolving disputes over the conscription law.
Four scenarios for government formation range from a coalition with Haredi and external Arab support to a minority government.
A national unity government with Netanyahu is considered unlikely due to deep-seated disagreements.
Failure to form a government could lead to the mandate returning to Netanyahu or further political deadlock.

Four Scenarios for Eisenkot to Form Israeli Government Amid Arab, Haredi Talks — Editorial illustration generated by baba News, not a photograph of the event.

Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog is expected to announce on Sunday his decision on tasking a Knesset member with forming the next government. Current indications suggest Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yahad party, will receive the mandate, having secured more party recommendations than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Eisenkot received recommendations from 67 Knesset members, compared to Netanyahu's 46. However, Herzog cautioned that these numbers do not guarantee a stable coalition due to reciprocal vetoes and internal disagreements.

If tasked, Eisenkot will have an initial 28 days, extendable by 14, to forge coalition agreements. His primary challenge lies in overcoming significant political hurdles, including disputes over potential partners, the involvement of Arab and Haredi parties, and differing stances on the conscription law. Four main scenarios are emerging for the formation of the next government.

The first scenario involves including the Haredi party United Torah Judaism and securing external support from the United Arab List. This combination, with 48 seats from the "change bloc" parties, seven from United Torah Judaism, and eight from the United Arab List, could reach 63 seats. This approach aims to bypass direct Arab party participation in the coalition, potentially easing objections from some change bloc partners, but faces a major obstacle in the Haredi conscription law, which is a point of contention with the change bloc parties.

A second scenario proposes a minority government of 48 seats, comprising the core parties of the change bloc, with efforts to expand it later. This government would lack a parliamentary majority and would need to rely on understandings with other parties for support on key votes. This option is considered difficult, especially given reservations from leaders like Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman about relying on a minority government.

The third scenario, a national unity government with Netanyahu, is considered unlikely by Eisenkot and most of the change bloc due to deep disagreements over Netanyahu's political future, ministerial portfolios, and the possibility of a rotation in the premiership. While some Likud figures have called for a unity government with conditions, Eisenkot prefers exhausting all other options before considering partnership with Netanyahu.

The fourth scenario is the failure of negotiations, leading Eisenkot to return the mandate to President Herzog. Herzog could then potentially task another member, possibly Netanyahu again, if he believes Netanyahu has a chance to form a supporting coalition. This outcome would prolong the political crisis and the caretaker government's term, or lead to other constitutional and political paths if a Knesset-approved government cannot be formed.