Eisenkot Faces Three Paths to Government Formation
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
Gadi Eisenkot, leading a bloc of 48 seats, faces challenges forming a government after elections left no clear majority. His options include repeat elections, a unity government with Benjamin Netanyahu, or a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox parties, which requires the support of Avigdor Lieberman. The latter option could allow Eisenkot a full term but faces significant hurdles over ultra-Orthodox demands, particularly regarding yeshiva student conscription.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Gadi Eisenkot must choose between repeat elections, a unity government with Netanyahu, or a coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties.
- Netanyahu's bloc has 53 seats, Eisenkot's has 48, and Arab parties hold 19, preventing any bloc from forming a government alone.
- A coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties (13 seats) requires Avigdor Lieberman's 7 seats for a 61-seat majority.
- Past unity government failures, like the one between Netanyahu and Gantz, raise stability concerns.
- The ultra-Orthodox conscription issue is a major obstacle to forming a coalition with those parties.
- Success in forming a coalition could grant Eisenkot a full four-year term.
Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the Yishar party, is considering three main options for forming a government following recent elections: repeat elections, a unity government with Benjamin Netanyahu, or a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox parties. The election results left Netanyahu's bloc with 53 seats and Eisenkot's bloc with 48, with Arab parties holding 19 seats, making it impossible for either bloc to form a government alone.
Repeat elections are seen by some as a potential way to strengthen the right-wing bloc, but there is no certainty of a different outcome. For Eisenkot, this means another campaign without a guarantee of a more favorable result.
A unity government with Netanyahu is a possibility that could command a broad Knesset majority. However, past experience, such as the 2020 unity government between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz that collapsed before Gantz could assume the premiership, raises doubts about its stability. Eisenkot may be hesitant to trust another rotation agreement with Netanyahu.
The third option involves cooperation with the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, which together hold 13 seats. Combined with Eisenkot's 48 seats, this could reach a majority of 61. However, this path is blocked by Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of Yisrael Beiteinu, who has historically opposed sitting with the ultra-Orthodox parties. Without his seven seats, Eisenkot cannot form a majority government with the ultra-Orthodox alone.
If Lieberman agrees to join such a government and Eisenkot can reach understandings with the ultra-Orthodox factions, a coalition with a shared interest in survival could emerge. Maintaining agreements with the ultra-Orthodox and addressing their demands could incentivize their support, potentially allowing Eisenkot a full four-year term. This would provide an opportunity to address the contentious issue of yeshiva student conscription, reduce public tension, and establish his credentials as prime minister, demonstrating that the country can be managed without Netanyahu.
However, the success of this option hinges on reaching agreements. The ultra-Orthodox parties' demands regarding conscription may clash with the positions of Lieberman and other partners in Eisenkot's bloc. Without a resolution to this dispute, even a 61-seat majority might not guarantee stability. The key question is whether Eisenkot, Lieberman, and the ultra-Orthodox factions are willing to compromise to form a joint government. Failure to reach an agreement would leave unity government or repeat elections as the remaining options.
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