Eisenkot Faces Coalition Crisis Amid Bennett, Lieberman Standoff

Gadi Eisenkot is facing significant political challenges in forming a new government, despite receiving recommendations from a majority of Knesset members. Following consultations with President Yitzhak Herzog, 67 lawmakers recommended Eisenkot, while 46 supported incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, the path to forming a government remains uncertain due to disagreements among potential partners, particularly Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman.

The primary obstacle is Lieberman's refusal to support a minority government reliant on the abstention of Arab parties. While 19 of the lawmakers recommending Eisenkot represent Arab parties, his own bloc, "New Choices," has only 48 mandates. The ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism, with seven seats, has not recommended Netanyahu but has also not committed to supporting Eisenkot, weakening Netanyahu's position by showing a lack of unity in his camp.

Eisenkot faces two main scenarios. The first involves forming a coalition with the Shas and United Torah Judaism parties to secure a 61-seat majority, but this requires resolving contentious issues like the military draft for Haredim. The second scenario is a minority government where Eisenkot's 48 lawmakers would support the cabinet, with 46 voting against and Arab parties and United Torah Judaism abstaining, resulting in a 48-46 vote of confidence. This scenario hinges on the unified position of all participants and the ultra-Orthodox's willingness to abstain during the vote.

Lieberman has explicitly stated his opposition to a government dependent on the abstention of the Ra'am and Joint List Arab parties. Bennett has also expressed doubts, though he has not yet declared his vote. This leaves Eisenkot uncertain of support even from those who recommended him.

The current situation forces Bennett and Lieberman to decide whether to back Eisenkot's minority government or effectively keep Netanyahu in power. Supporting Eisenkot's government carries risks, potentially alienating voters expecting a change, while agreeing to a government reliant on Arab party abstentions could contradict their stated political principles, especially for Lieberman.

Bennett and Lieberman retain a strategic advantage by allowing Eisenkot to attempt coalition formation first without committing to the final composition. If he fails, they can claim they gave him a chance, potentially strengthening their positions for future negotiations. However, prolonged negotiations could exacerbate internal divisions within the anti-Netanyahu bloc. Discussions with ultra-Orthodox parties are ongoing, with Lieberman showing some willingness to compromise on the draft issue, but the extent of concessions and the ultra-Orthodox factions' ultimate positions remain unclear.