New Intelligence Indicators Before October 7 Hamas Attack Revealed
Translated & summarized from N12 by baba
Two new intelligence indicators, including the identification of Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif entering a tunnel and changes in the organization's anti-tank missile array, were cleared for publication Wednesday. These signs, along with others like the activation of Israeli SIM cards, were observed on the eve of the October 7 Hamas attack. Despite these indicators, "cooling" signs led the security establishment to underestimate Hamas's intentions, believing it to be a drill or limited preparation. The military secretary to the Prime Minister at the time, Avi Gill, recounted being alerted to suspicious signs but also contradictory information before the attack commenced.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- New intelligence indicated Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif entered a tunnel before the October 7 attack.
- Changes in Hamas's anti-tank missile array were also identified as a key indicator before the attack.
- Hundreds of Israeli SIM cards were activated in Gaza, another sign of impending Hamas action.
- Conflicting "cooling" signs led Israeli security to underestimate Hamas's intentions, deeming it a drill.
- The military secretary to the PM was alerted to suspicious signs but also contradictory information.
- Rocket fire began while the military secretary was on a call discussing the suspicious indicators.
Two additional intelligence indicators suggesting Hamas might launch an attack on October 7 were cleared for publication by military censorship on Wednesday. The intelligence gathered by the security establishment on the eve of the massacre included the identification of Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas's military wing, descending into a tunnel. Concurrently, intelligence sources detected changes in the posture of the organization's anti-tank missile array in the Gaza Strip.
These indicators emerged alongside other previously published signs, such as the activation of hundreds of Israeli SIM cards within the Gaza Strip. Despite the accumulation of data, several "cooling" signs were also observed, leading the security establishment to underestimate Hamas's intentions at the time. The prevailing assessment was that these activities constituted a Hamas drill or preparations for a limited border clash.
In September 2023, Hamas had designated the attack for the Passover Seder preceding Simchat Torah, but the IDF identified early signs and raised its alert level, potentially causing Hamas to cancel the planned assault. This suggests Hamas may have detected Israel's heightened readiness and adjusted its timeline.
Avi Gill, the Military Secretary to the Prime Minister at the time, recently described the events of that morning. He recounted being awakened at 6:12 AM by the chief of staff to the then-Head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, who reported suspicious signs overnight, including SIM card activity, senior officials going underground, and other indicators. However, Gill noted the presence of contradictory signs suggesting otherwise, such as past Hamas drills and training exercises.
Gill explained that before briefing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he spoke with the military. He contacted the chief of staff to the IDF Chief of Staff at 6:22 AM. While they were speaking, the rocket fire began a few minutes later, and Gill's phone began vibrating with numerous alerts about launches in the south.
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