Pollster Celebrates Accuracy, Defends Independent Findings

Tzuriel Sharon, CEO and owner of the polling firm Direct Polls, expressed satisfaction following the recent elections, highlighting that his company's exit poll, broadcast on i24NEWS, presented a different picture than those of other television channels. In a post on Wednesday, Sharon stated his pride in his team's work, asserting that partial results accumulated overnight showed a remarkable alignment with their poll, particularly regarding the Likud party's seat count and the balance of power between political blocs.

Sharon declared Direct Polls has established itself as Israel's most accurate polling firm after enduring what he called the "most brutal test." He described the election campaign as a personal test for him in the company's new format, undertaken with a sense of responsibility to clients and i24NEWS, which chose to partner with Direct Polls. Sharon noted that in the weeks leading up to the election, Direct Polls' data consistently showed a different trend than other media polls, sometimes with significant discrepancies. He added that as election day approached, scrutiny and criticism of the company's forecasts intensified.

Despite the criticism and pressure, Sharon stated the team did not alter their findings, emphasizing that professional findings should not be changed due to external factors. He explained that the company repeatedly reviewed its data, assumptions, models, and methodologies, aiming solely to reflect reality as accurately as possible rather than converging with competitors' predictions.

A key moment, Sharon recounted, was the release of the exit poll at 10 PM on election night. The Direct Polls forecast on i24NEWS significantly differed from others, especially concerning the balance between political blocs. Sharon informed the channel's management beforehand that the company would not adjust its data during the night, citing confidence in their work and commitment to their initial results.

As actual vote counts progressed, Sharon observed a strong correlation between his firm's poll and the emerging results, particularly for the Likud and the bloc distribution, though he cautioned that the ongoing count could still lead to minor shifts. In other media interviews, Sharon revealed he had warned other pollsters about the divergence between their estimates and his findings, reaching out days or even weeks before the election to highlight what he perceived as an underestimation of the Likud's strength, aiming to protect their professional credibility.

Sharon attributed part of the success to Direct Polls' significant investment in upgrading its technological systems over the past year. He mentioned the firm worked with clients across the political spectrum, including nearly all party leaders, some of whom questioned the data during the process. Beyond the satisfaction with the results, Sharon stressed the importance of professional independence, even when findings challenge prevailing narratives or face criticism. He believes pollsters should present data as derived from research, regardless of public or political expectations, noting that deviating from the consensus exposes pollsters to greater scrutiny if errors occur.

Sharon concluded by thanking his Direct Polls team and the i24NEWS staff for their support, and extended respect to his professional colleagues, acknowledging the discrepancies in the polls. He affirmed Direct Polls' future direction: "From here, Direct Polls charges ahead with all its might: with modesty, seriousness, and above all, professionalism."