Pollster Defends Accurate Election Forecast, Cites Truth Over Consensus
Translated & summarized from Kipa by baba
Pollster Tzuriel Sharon of i24NEWS and Direct Polls claims his firm was the most accurate in the recent Knesset elections, presenting a forecast that differed significantly from others. Sharon stated his team prioritized truth and rigorous methodology over aligning with the consensus, even when facing criticism. As results emerged, his poll showed a strong correlation with the final outcomes, validating his independent approach.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Pollster Tzuriel Sharon claims his firm, Direct Polls, was the most accurate in the recent Knesset elections.
- Sharon stated his company did not adjust its data to match other polls, prioritizing accuracy.
- The i24NEWS poll presented a significantly different forecast than other media outlets on election night.
- Sharon noted a strong correlation between his poll's predictions and the final election results.
- He emphasized the importance of professional independence and presenting data truthfully, even if it differs from the consensus.
Tzuriel Sharon, a pollster for i24NEWS and founder of Direct Polls, has responded to the recent Knesset election results, asserting his firm was the most accurate among all media outlets. Sharon expressed pride in his team's work, stating that Direct Polls proved itself by presenting a forecast significantly different from those of other media organizations.
Sharon described the election as a personal test for Direct Polls in its new format, emphasizing a commitment to accuracy and humility. He stated that the company did not adjust its data to align with other polls, even when discrepancies were substantial. Despite facing skepticism and criticism for their data in the weeks leading up to the election, Sharon confirmed that the team rigorously re-examined their data, assumptions, models, and methodologies.
"We weren't looking for the middle ground or a way to get closer to others' results, but rather a way to ensure we were as faithful as possible to the dynamic reality," Sharon wrote. He noted that the first critical moment came on election night when the i24NEWS poll presented a different picture than other outlets, particularly regarding the bloc balance.
Sharon had informed i24NEWS staff that he would not update the poll during the night. As official results came in, he observed a strong correlation between his forecast and the actual vote counts, including the Likud's seat allocation and the overall bloc distribution. He thanked the Direct Polls team and i24NEWS staff for their support over the past year.
Addressing his fellow pollsters, Sharon clarified that he does not dismiss their work despite the forecast differences. He highlighted the importance of professional independence and the necessity of presenting data to the public as it is, even when it diverges from the consensus.
