Trump-Guaranteed Rotation: A Proposed Exit From Israel's Political Stalemate
Translated & summarized from Mignews by baba
Israeli historian Kobi Barda proposed a "triple rotation" for the premiership involving Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot, and Naftali Bennett, with U.S. President Donald Trump as guarantor. The plan would see Netanyahu serve until 2028, followed by Eisenkot until 2030, and then Bennett. This scenario aims to break the political deadlock after recent elections and could facilitate a Saudi normalization deal, while excluding extremist parties from government. Barda cites the 1980s Peres-Shamir rotation government as a precedent.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Historian Kobi Barda proposed a triple rotation of Israeli premiership for Netanyahu, Eisenkot, and Bennett.
- U.S. President Donald Trump could broker and guarantee the proposed rotation deal.
- Netanyahu would serve until July 2028, followed by Eisenkot until January 2030, then Bennett.
- The plan aims to resolve Israel's post-election political deadlock and exclude extremist parties.
- Barda suggests Trump's motives include Saudi normalization and advancing the IMEC economic corridor.
- The proposed rotation is compared to the successful 1980s Peres-Shamir government.
An Israeli historian and political analyst, Kobi Barda, has proposed a "triple rotation" scenario for the Israeli premiership, suggesting that Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot, and Naftali Bennett could serve as prime minister in succession. Barda posits that U.S. President Donald Trump could broker and guarantee such an agreement, potentially resolving the post-election deadlock where Netanyahu's Likud party emerged as the largest but his opponents, allied with Arab parties, secured a majority.
Under Barda's plan, Netanyahu would serve as prime minister until July 7, 2028, after which he would transition to the presidency as part of a deal that includes a pardon. Eisenkot would then lead the government until January 1, 2030, followed by Bennett until the next elections. Barda believes this arrangement could allow Netanyahu to finalize a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, enable Eisenkot to focus on national and military reconstruction without reliance on extremist factions, and permit Bennett to return as prime minister and advance the conscription of Haredi men.
Barda suggests Trump could convene the three politicians in Washington and exert pressure, motivated by potential breakthroughs in Saudi normalization, countering China, advancing the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), and other economic interests. He notes a possible understanding between Trump and Netanyahu involving actions against Iran in the first year, advancing the Abraham Accords in the second, and Netanyahu's departure. Barda highlights that Riyadh would not normalize ties if extremist parties remain in the Israeli government, citing a report that Trump's circle considers a government with Itamar Ben-Gvir "not an option."
The proposed coalition would exclude the parties of Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, along with Netanyahu's religious and ultra-Orthodox partners. Barda dismisses other potential paths, such as an Eisenkot government with Arab parties, which he believes would be unstable, especially if Avigdor Lieberman were included. He also considers new elections a risk, as they might increase Netanyahu's chances if Ofer Winter no longer ran independently, but warns that opponents could pass legislation preventing Netanyahu from running again.
Barda draws a parallel to the successful rotation government of Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir in the 1980s, which implemented the new shekel and the 1985 economic stabilization program to combat hyperinflation.
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