Trump Associates Signal Netanyahu May Serve Only One Year

Associates of former President Donald Trump are signaling that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might serve for only one year, after which a successor would take over. These individuals are reportedly advocating for a unity government that excludes ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. A rotation in the prime minister's office is also being discussed, with Netanyahu serving first. However, ministers the minister and Naftali Bennett reportedly oppose serving under Netanyahu, and the Americans have not yet held discussions with them regarding this framework.

Bill Ackman, a hedge fund manager and influential figure in U.S. business and politics, has criticized Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, stating they harm Israel's image and its ability to advance its diplomatic goals. While praising Netanyahu and his relationship with Trump, Ackman desires Netanyahu to continue as prime minister but with different coalition partners. Multiple sources indicate that other figures in Washington share this view, believing that a change in the Israeli government's composition is necessary for Trump to achieve his ambitious Middle East plans during his remaining two years in office. A key objective is a historic normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, which is seen as difficult to advance with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich in the government.

These individuals emphasize the importance of the next Israeli government's makeup for Trump's potential diplomatic achievements. An agreement with Saudi Arabia, for instance, requires difficult Israeli decisions on the Palestinian issue and other regional matters. A government reliant on Ben-Gvir and Smotrich might struggle to make such decisions, even if Netanyahu desires them. However, even replacing coalition partners does not guarantee an agreement, as Riyadh has its own policy demands, including progress on the Palestinian issue.

The proposed framework involves a unity government with a rotation of leadership. Proponents believe this would ensure governmental continuity in the first year and later place regional negotiations in the hands of a prime minister not dependent on Netanyahu's current partners. Sources suggest Netanyahu himself told Trump he wishes to form a unity government after the elections.

Despite these ideas circulating in Washington, the political reality in Israel appears distant. The Americans have not conducted thorough feasibility studies with opposition leaders, nor have substantive talks occurred with the minister or other senior figures about this framework. Electoral scenarios also do not favor the initiative. If Netanyahu's bloc secures 61 seats, he would likely receive the mandate to form a government, but the minister or Bennett's willingness to join is questionable. Furthermore, the ultra-Orthodox parties demand the approval of the draft law as a condition for coalition negotiations. If the right-wing bloc does not achieve a majority, it is uncertain Netanyahu would receive the first mandate. Even if the right-wing bloc wins, Netanyahu could face a dilemma: his natural partners would demand fulfillment of their commitments, particularly the ultra-Orthodox regarding the draft law. Approaching the minister and Bennett would require offering them a role in a government they have pledged not to join. Even within the right-wing bloc, there is skepticism about the minister or Bennett agreeing to such a move.