US Briefs Gulf Allies on Potential Intense, Short Conflict With Iran

The United States has recently instructed several Gulf states to prepare for the possibility of a brief, intense military campaign against Iran immediately following the US midterm elections. This information, reported by the Wall Street Journal, indicates that diplomatic and military channels were used for these communications. These preparations align with numerous signs suggesting that the US and Israeli militaries are finalizing their readiness for another significant round of strikes aimed at weakening Tehran's power and compelling it to negotiate, despite the clear risks of a broad regional escalation.

President Donald Trump, when asked about a potential post-election strike, stated that "everything is possible." Operationally, the US military has initiated several measures. A Patriot missile system is being transferred from Texas to bolster regional missile defense, and troops have been evacuated from vulnerable bases. American forces in the Middle East are replenishing their ammunition, and fighter jets and bombers are on high alert. Additionally, another aircraft carrier and a Marine Corps contingent are expected to join a fleet of approximately 20 warships in the region next month, though some vessels may be rotated.

Trump has previously stated he would not order military action before the midterm elections. Sources familiar with the matter suggest he has not made a final decision but is inclined to approve a wide-ranging attack shortly after the polls close, potentially targeting strategic infrastructure and nuclear sites. An alternative being considered is pursuing a negotiated agreement, but regional mediation efforts have thus far been unsuccessful. Trump has alluded to potential further actions, referencing past operations and suggesting Iran might agree to a deal.

The White House declined to comment on specific details of sensitive military plans but affirmed that President Trump "leaves all options on the table to ensure Iran never has a nuclear weapon." The Department of Defense stated its role is to provide the President with operational alternatives. In Israel, operational plans and a target bank for strikes have reportedly been formulated, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly pushing for renewed military action to degrade Tehran's capabilities and ultimately lead to regime change.

Experts, however, express skepticism that further strikes would lead to Iran's capitulation. They point to Iran's resilience during past conflicts, noting that despite significant damage, Tehran continued to attack vessels, launch missiles, and maintain rigid negotiation stances. Dani Sitrinovich, a former senior official in Aman, warned that the assumption that another strike could topple the regime is a major mistake, arguing it would only entrench the regime further. While the core of Iran's nuclear program was reportedly destroyed in a brief conflict in June 2025, international concerns persist. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi informed the UN Security Council that inspectors have not detected activity to repair damaged facilities but acknowledged limitations in verifying the absence of diverted nuclear material due to lack of direct access to certain sites.

Seth Jones, a security analyst, suggested Trump might use a new wave of attacks as a declaration of victory to reduce US military involvement, even if not decisive. He believes strikes would allow Trump to claim he has again rolled back Iran's nuclear program. Tehran has issued warnings through various channels, vowing severe retaliation against economic and civilian targets in the region if attacked, a threat that worries Gulf states who have previously suffered damage to airports and energy facilities. Such a response would confront the US and its allies as they race to replenish depleted interceptor missile stocks. Despite substantial damage, Iran reportedly retains a significant arsenal of missiles and is using the lull in fighting to fortify its positions and assemble new ballistic missiles from stockpiled components. Israel is reportedly monitoring Iran's rapid recovery with concern, as regional mediation efforts to prevent escalation falter against the rigid conditions set by both sides.