US and Israel Finalize Iran Attack Plans Amid Tehran's Retaliation Threats

The United States and Israel have developed detailed plans for renewed strikes against Iran, set to be implemented after the US midterm elections on November 3. According to a "New York Times" report citing American officials and sources familiar with the discussions, the operation, codenamed "short and intense," will likely target nuclear and energy facilities, as well as missile and drone sites. President Donald Trump, when asked about developments with Iran, stated, "A little bit, we'll see what happens," adding, "We are not negotiating with them. Something will happen one way or another very soon." He indicated that most people expect action after the elections.

Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed on Thursday that seven vessels were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz. They alleged that four ships caught fire after a pursuit in the northern part of the strait for allegedly conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers. Three other vessels reportedly hit mines west of the strait and caught fire. The Revolutionary Guard warned that if the current trend continues, the conflict would expand to the attackers' bases in the region, calling it a "serious warning." Iranian officials stated they are aware of US and Israeli war plans and are developing their own response tactics, threatening to attack data centers and undersea internet cables, asserting the conflict "will not be short."

Political commentator Payman Salehi suggested that an Iranian response to an attack could include targeting major refineries in Saudi Arabia, such as those belonging to Saudi Aramco, to cause a sharp rise in oil and energy prices. He believes that raising oil prices is Iran's most effective leverage against Trump, as it would impact the American public.

Amid fears of escalation, the US State Department has ordered non-essential government personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia. This decision was also influenced by ongoing Houthi attacks in the kingdom. The "New York Times" reported that a final decision on US strikes has not yet been made. A "Financial Times" report from earlier indicated that the IDF had prepared for several days of conflict with Iran about a week and a half prior, but President Trump opposed initiating hostilities before the midterm elections, halting the plan. The targets for that planned strike reportedly included civilian infrastructure like power stations and nuclear facilities.

The "New York Times" also noted that the US would not complete the full deployment of its military forces, including three aircraft carriers and thousands of Marines, until early November. The US military reportedly prefers to strike under the cover of darkness, which will be more prevalent in Iran at the beginning of next month. However, some sources suggested a "slim possibility" that Trump could decide on a campaign this month. The upcoming Israeli elections on October 27 could complicate matters, potentially turning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a caretaker leader unable to initiate war. Some analysts speculate he might use this to push for a unity government to manage the conflict, allowing him to remain in power. The response of the opposition leaders to such plans remains unclear.

Plans might also include an attack on the deeply buried Fordow nuclear site, where activity has reportedly accelerated. Trump had previously considered using the "mother of all bombs" against the target, but experts note its surface-detonating nature might not destroy the underground facility. Military officials also warned that deploying such a bomb would require a slow-flying transport aircraft, making it vulnerable to Iranian anti-aircraft fire. A military commander quoted by the "New York Times" described the repeated planning efforts and Trump's subsequent decisions not to strike as creating a sense of "constant turbulence" among planners, who must remain ready for any military option Trump might choose.

Separately, Axios reported that dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets conducted an operational sortie near Iran's border three days prior, reaching approximately 1,300 km from Israel. This flight occurred a week before the elections and on the same day US Defense Secretary met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israeli and American sources described the sortie as a deterrent measure against Iran, though they acknowledged it could lead to miscalculation and renewed conflict. The flight path went through Syrian and Iraqi airspace before turning back from the Iranian border. While Israel had informed the US beforehand, framing it as a show of force, some American sources felt Israel hoped for an Iranian response to justify strikes.