Israel Election Stalemate Points to Repeat Vote or Unity Government

Exit polls following the latest election indicate no clear winner, making a repeat election a significant possibility. Other potential scenarios include forming a unity government or a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu with defectors from opposing parties. A minority government under Gadi Eisenkot, which seemed plausible earlier, now appears less likely due to a projected advantage for the Netanyahu bloc.

A repeat election is considered the least desirable outcome for Israel, especially amid heightened security tensions, but it is also seen as the most probable. This is largely due to the substantial number of mandates secured by Arab parties, which complicates the formation of a government for either Netanyahu or Eisenkot without their inclusion. Efforts by President Yitzhak Herzog and other political and international figures may be made to prevent new elections.

Netanyahu, as interim Prime Minister, stands to benefit from a prolonged political stalemate. There are concerns within the "change bloc" that he might instigate a security escalation to pressure opponents and potentially force a national emergency government. A unity government under Netanyahu is possible, but would require party leaders to break campaign promises. Netanyahu's speech suggested he would not abandon the right-wing bloc and did not explicitly call for unity, only stating that the "Zionist majority must pull itself together and unite."

Eisenkot declared that a "worthy leader would have resigned that day" and expressed difficulty in forming a unity government with Netanyahu, having previously vowed not to sit with him under any circumstances and to resign if he did. Both Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman have stated they would not join Netanyahu. Given the projected results favoring the Likud and its bloc, Netanyahu would likely insist on being the first to rotate the premiership if such an arrangement were even considered.

Another scenario involves Netanyahu attempting to form a government by attracting defectors from the change bloc. However, he is far from the 61-seat majority needed and would require a significant number of MKs to switch sides. While Netanyahu might seek the mandate to form a government for tactical reasons, assembling one would be extremely challenging.

The possibility of a minority government led by Eisenkot, which was more viable when the change bloc appeared larger in initial polls, has diminished. Eisenkot had announced his intention to immediately work on forming a government, claiming his bloc was the largest. Lieberman, who had previously ruled out a minority government, did not address cooperation with the Ra'am party. Despite Lieberman's past calls for a "rebellion" against Netanyahu, whom he called a "crime boss," the anticipated lack of defectors makes it unlikely for the change bloc to form a government.

An additional possibility is the replacement of the current interim government led by Netanyahu with a new interim government under Eisenkot. Such a government could potentially enact measures like replacing the Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana or establishing a state commission of inquiry into the October 7th massacre. However, the likelihood of this scenario has also receded with the dramatic shifts in the latest exit polls.