Pollster Predicts Lieberman's Party Will Miss Knesset Threshold, Right-Wing Bloc to Gain

Following the final voter turnout figures, pollster Shlomo Filber updated his election forecast, estimating that Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party will not pass the electoral threshold for the Knesset. Filber's revised assessment suggests that the right-wing bloc may gain additional mandates as a result, potentially securing 61 seats or more in the upcoming Knesset. This projection marks a significant shift from his initial poll, which had allocated four mandates to Yisrael Beiteinu and predicted the right-wing bloc would receive 60 seats overall.

The updated forecast comes after the Central Elections Committee reported a national voter turnout of 77.7%, the highest since 1999. Filber stated that based on these final turnout figures, he now believes with higher probability that Lieberman will not be in the next Knesset and the right will rise to 61 seats or more. If Yisrael Beiteinu indeed fails to cross the 3.25% threshold, its votes will not be counted towards mandate distribution, potentially altering the balance of power between the blocs.

In Filber's initial poll, the right-wing bloc was projected to receive 60 seats, the left-wing bloc 43, and Arab parties 17. Specific projections included Likud with 30 mandates, Yesh Atid with 19, and Naftali Bennett's party with 11. Yisrael Beiteinu was initially projected at four mandates but has since fallen below the threshold in the updated model.

Avigdor Lieberman addressed the election poll results and the concern that his party might not pass the threshold, urging his supporters to await the official results. He noted the unusually high number of double envelopes, many from soldiers and reservists, which he believes could improve his party's standing. Lieberman described his party's performance as "reasonable plus" under "unreasonable conditions" for a liberal right-wing party and expressed hope for a more optimistic picture by Friday.