Ultra-Orthodox Poll Shows Strong Support for Traditional Parties
Translated & summarized from Kikar HaShabbat by baba
A Kikar HaShabat poll of the ultra-Orthodox public shows United Torah Judaism leading with 48% and Shas with 32% of the vote. Nearly 80% of respondents supported these two traditional parties. The poll used mock ballot boxes and online surveys to capture actual voter intentions. Support for other right-wing and change bloc parties remained minimal.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- United Torah Judaism leads ultra-Orthodox vote with 48%, Shas second at 32%.
- Nearly 80% of ultra-Orthodox voters support traditional religious parties.
- Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism received 5% and 2% respectively.
- Poll used mock ballot boxes and online surveys to gauge actual voter intentions.
- Support for non-Haredi right-wing and change bloc parties was minimal.
A poll conducted by Kikar HaShabat among the ultra-Orthodox public reveals a strong preference for traditional religious parties, with nearly 80% of respondents indicating support for either United Torah Judaism or Shas. United Torah Judaism emerged as the leading party with 48% of the vote, followed by Shas with 32%.
The survey, which utilized mock ballot boxes at polling stations in Bnei Brak, Jerusalem, and Beit Shemesh, along with a supplementary online poll, aimed to capture the voting intentions of those who had already cast their ballots. This method differs from standard opinion polls by surveying actual voters rather than predicting intentions.
Smaller percentages of the ultra-Orthodox vote were allocated to other parties, including Otzma Yehudit (5%), Religious Zionism (2%), Tzav Echad (2%), Likud (1%), Noam for Israel (1%), and parties from the "change bloc" (2%). This indicates minimal support for non-Haredi right-wing parties and a negligible spillover to the opposition bloc.
The methodology involved selecting key polling stations based on statistical models and demographic data to create a representative microcosm of the national electorate. Voters exiting the official polling stations were then asked to anonymously recount their vote into a mock ballot box or via a tablet.
The article also details the potential pitfalls of such polls, including sampling errors, unequal response rates, timing discrepancies, and the impact of the electoral threshold, which can significantly alter the distribution of Knesset seats even with minor percentage differences.
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