Ultra-Orthodox Poll Shows Dramatic Surge in Voter Turnout Ahead of Elections
Translated & summarized from Kikar HaShabbat by baba
A new poll by 'Kikar HaShabbat' predicts an 88% voter turnout in the ultra-Orthodox sector, a significant increase that could impact smaller parties. Traditional ultra-Orthodox parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism are seeing a resurgence, driven by religious identity and rabbinical influence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains strong support among this demographic despite the unresolved draft law. The results of this poll are expected to be revealed on election day.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Ultra-Orthodox voter turnout is projected to surge to 88%, a dramatic increase from previous estimates.
- The rising turnout is expected to raise the Knesset entry threshold, potentially harming smaller parties.
- Shas and United Torah Judaism are recovering due to strong religious identity and rabbinical guidance.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu retains significant support within the ultra-Orthodox community.
- The first-ever ultra-Orthodox election poll will be conducted and revealed on election day.
A new poll released by 'Kikar HaShabbat' indicates a significant and unprecedented surge in voter turnout among the ultra-Orthodox sector, potentially reshaping the upcoming Knesset elections. Avi Weidman, head of the 'Super Data' polling institute, explained that turnout is now projected to reach 88%, a substantial increase from the previous estimate of 75%. This dramatic rise is seen as detrimental to smaller parties, as it raises the threshold for entering the Knesset to an estimated 185,000 to 190,000 votes, up from approximately 167,000 in the last election.
Traditional ultra-Orthodox parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism are showing signs of recovery, attributed to aggressive campaigning and a strong emphasis on religious identity and communal pressure. Weidman noted that over 84% of respondents consider their ultra-Orthodox identity central to their self-perception, with 31% feeling uncomfortable voting against their community's norms. A significant 33% admitted they would feel guilty voting against rabbinical recommendations, which 70% view as a religious obligation.
Meanwhile, smaller parties face challenges. The 'Achi' party appears to be fading, while 'Tzeva Shachor' is reportedly drawing votes from United Torah Judaism and is expected to reveal its rabbinical endorsements soon. The party's chairman, Yaakov Chaim Miller, cited fear of terror against rabbis as a reason for previous delays.
Despite the ongoing debate over the draft law, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains strong support within the ultra-Orthodox community, which Weidman described as perhaps the only sector where Netanyahu is significantly rebuilding his standing. Both Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox parties have reportedly downplayed the draft law issue, with Netanyahu promising to pass it. The Lithuanian ultra-Orthodox public shows strong right-wing loyalty, while the Sephardic ultra-Orthodox public appears more pragmatic, seeking political achievements like the draft law.
In the broader political landscape, the "change bloc" is showing signs of strengthening, partly due to Naftali Bennett's "parliaments" campaign. Weidman suggests Bennett might be in a close race with Gadi Eisenkot. 'Kikar HaShabbat' will conduct the first-ever ultra-Orthodox election poll on election day, with results expected to be revealed at 10:20 PM.
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