Ultra-Orthodox Pollster Analyzes Voting Trends and Party Fortunes
Translated & summarized from Arutz Sheva by baba
Pollster Dudi Daror of Ascara Research Institute analyzed voting trends in the ultra-Orthodox sector, projecting eight seats for United Torah Judaism and seven to eight for Shas. He noted that the "Chareidi Public" party led by Moti Leitner has stabilized around 5% support. Daror explained the methodological challenges of surveying the Haredi public and discussed factors influencing voter decisions, including recent national events and strategic voting, emphasizing that final results will only be known on election day.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Pollster Dudi Daror projects United Torah Judaism at eight seats and Shas at seven to eight seats.
- The "Chareidi Public" party led by Moti Leitner has stabilized around 5% support among Haredim.
- Daror explained the complexities of surveying the ultra-Orthodox sector using combined phone and online methods.
- Recent events like the October 7th attack and judicial reform have impacted public opinion, affecting Likud's poll numbers.
- The final election results will depend on undecided voters and strategic choices made on election day.
Dudi Daror, CEO and founder of the Ascara Research Institute, which specializes in the ultra-Orthodox sector, has analyzed voting trends ahead of the 26th Knesset elections. He explained the methodologies used for surveying the Haredi public, noting the challenges in reaching segments that do not use the internet or smartphones. Ascara combines phone and online surveys, weighting data by factors like gender, age, religious stream, and community to ensure accuracy.
Daror highlighted a trend of strengthening support for the United Torah Judaism party, estimating it at around eight Knesset seats. Shas is projected to receive seven to eight seats, though Daror suggested it could potentially achieve nine seats, as its strength is often underestimated in polls. He also discussed the "Chareidi Public" party led by Moti Leitner, stating its support has stabilized around 5% of the Haredi electorate, translating to approximately 25,000 votes, though actual results remain uncertain due to voter reluctance to declare support and public pressure.
He differentiated between a poll, which captures a snapshot in time, and an election forecast, emphasizing that voter decisions on election day can differ. Daror also addressed the significant drop in Likud's poll numbers compared to its previous election results, attributing it to factors like voters shifting between parties within the same bloc for strategic reasons, undecided voters, and the impact of recent events such as the October 7th attack and the judicial reform debate.
Regarding other parties, Daror noted that the "Black Color" party draws support from more conservative segments of the Haredi public, unlike Leitner's party, which also attracts more modern voters. Support for the Jerusalem Faction, influenced by the issue of draft dodgers, remains low at around 0.3% to 0.4% in Ascara's surveys.
Finally, Daror commented on the difficulty of precisely quantifying the contributions of individual leaders, such as Moshe Feiglin and Bezalel Smotrich, to their joint list, explaining that voter bases shift over time. He concluded that while polls indicate certain trends, the final election outcome will depend on undecided voters and strategic voting on election day.
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