Coalition Math: Bennett Crucial for Netanyahu, Eizenkot Eyes Minority Government

Preliminary election projections indicate no single bloc will secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset. The right-wing bloc, projected to win 50-54 seats, faces potential losses from far-right politician Moshe Feiglin, who has stated he will not join a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu. Additionally, the ultra-Orthodox parties, particularly United Torah Judaism, are considered fragile coalition partners due to their demand for a conscription law before government formation. On the opposing side, the 7 seats attributed to Naftali Bennett's Yamina party (out of the party's 13-14 total) are also uncertain. Bennett has previously demonstrated a willingness to shift allegiances for the premiership, and he could now be the key to forming a right-wing majority. Netanyahu is expected to make significant concessions, potentially including promises of key ministerial portfolios and a fourth year as prime minister, to secure Bennett's support. Meanwhile, Eizenkot is reportedly considering forming a minority government, possibly with the support of the Arab Ra'am party, or even without it. Such a government, potentially with the backing of other Arab parties, could also lead to a change in the Knesset speaker. This strategy would allow Eizenkot to lead the government and hold ministerial positions, potentially serving until the next elections and using that position to his advantage during the campaign.