Israeli Coalition Parties Divided on Minority Government Formation

Israeli political parties are preparing for potential seismic shifts in the Knesset, with a significant portion of the current coalition potentially voting against its leadership. "About a third of the coalition may vote against him," suggesting a potential collapse of the existing government. Parties aiming for change are considering the possibility of forming a minority government, a move opposed by Avigdor Lieberman and Naftali Bennett. Meanwhile, there is emerging consensus on a first step after the elections: replacing the current Knesset Speaker, Amir Ohana, even without a full agreement on forming a new government.

Most polls indicate that the bloc opposing Benjamin Netanyahu holds an advantage over the outgoing coalition. However, the "change bloc" parties do not currently command the necessary majority to establish a government based on their existing agreements. Netanyahu and his allies are also falling short of a majority in many polls, though some surveys suggest a right-wing majority. The electoral threshold could alter seat allocations, with a small number of votes potentially determining whether a new government is formed or if another political campaign ensues.

Gadi Eisenkot has expressed his ambition to achieve a much larger result, enabling the formation of a Zionist government independent of external factors. Relying on 58 or 59 mandates necessitates careful agreement with partners, particularly Bennett and Lieberman, who oppose a government dependent on the support or abstention of Arab parties. Eisenkot himself has not ruled out external support from Ra'am. He aims to project confidence in a phased approach but has yet to present a agreed-upon formula.

Legally, forming a government does not require 61 votes in favor, but rather a majority in a confidence vote. Abstentions could allow a government to take office without an absolute majority. However, a constructive no-confidence vote, intended to replace an incumbent government, requires the support of 61 Knesset members for an alternative government. Therefore, Eisenkot's minority government scenario is relevant for government formation but does not empower the change bloc to oust an incumbent Netanyahu government through a simple majority.

Lieberman proposes an alternative: incorporating Knesset members from the Likud into a government without Netanyahu, or creating a Zionist majority through a restructuring of blocs post-election. He claims Likud members would be open to such a move, though he has not named them, and no open negotiations are currently underway. Eisenkot seeks to form a government with a partial majority, intending to expand it later. Lieberman refuses to join such a government, demanding a Zionist majority from its inception. A recent meeting between Eisenkot and Lieberman concluded with a joint statement on the need to increase voter turnout but did not resolve their disagreement over a minority government.

Internal competition for leadership persists. Eisenkot aims to emerge from the elections as the head of the largest party, believing this will strengthen his position in consultations. Bennett sees himself as a natural candidate for leading the change bloc, citing his experience as prime minister. Lieberman insists on not making commitments that would allow a government to be formed against his views. Each party leader seeks to increase their influence, even if mandate transfers within the same bloc do not necessarily increase the bloc's overall strength.

Following the elections, agreement will be needed on the next prime minister, the coalition's composition, and its formation terms. A primary post-election objective for the change bloc is to replace Amir Ohana as Knesset Speaker. The change bloc also aims to advance a state commission of inquiry into the October 7th events, legislative changes regarding conscription, limiting the prime minister's tenure, and reversing some judicial reforms by the outgoing government. Lieberman also seeks a law preventing individuals indicted for crimes from serving as prime minister. Binding agreement on legislative details and their order of advancement is still pending. Teams from the parties have met to coordinate initial steps in the new Knesset, aiming to leverage the weeks after the election before coalition negotiations deepen disagreements. The experience of the Bennett-Lapid government, where promised laws were not completed before its dissolution, serves as a lesson. The change bloc wants to act quickly this time, but fears that Knesset members with differing views may not support every item on the joint agenda.