Turkey Challenges Israel's Mediterranean Ambitions, Analyst Claims

Turkey is attempting to assert control over strategic Mediterranean routes, potentially disrupting U.S. plans for a trade corridor and complicating the ambitions of Israel, Greece, and Cyprus to develop transport and energy links with Europe, according to retired IDF Lieutenant Colonel Amit Yagur. Writing for Maariv, Yagur suggests Ankara's actions stem from disputes with Greece and Cyprus, as well as a broader effort to shape a new regional order, particularly concerning the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC).

A key development cited is the confirmation by the eastern Libyan parliament of a maritime agreement with Turkey, initially signed in 2020. This deal has drawn objections from Greece, as its proposed maritime boundary infringes on areas Greece claims based on its nearby islands, including Crete and Rhodes. In response, Greece and Egypt have initiated talks to expand their exclusive economic zone eastward, which Yagur believes could hinder the Turkish-Libyan accord and foster closer cooperation among nations favoring the current regional power balance.

Yagur attributes Turkey's policy to its "Blue Homeland" doctrine, which advocates for expanded influence in the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Seas. He argues Turkey aims to secure greater control over maritime routes, energy resources, and communication infrastructure, positioning itself as a gatekeeper for major regional projects.

The IMEC initiative, designed to connect India, the Middle East, and Europe via rail, energy, and data infrastructure, is seen as particularly vulnerable. Yagur posits that Israel could be a crucial link between the Middle East and Europe, with Greece extending the connection to the continent, but maritime border disputes could derail these plans. Turkey's assertive stance, he contends, could impede the U.S.-backed regional cooperation framework and the expansion of the Abraham Accords.

Amid these diplomatic tensions, Israel and Greece conducted joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean, practicing scenarios for protecting shipping lanes, gas platforms, and critical infrastructure. Yagur views these maneuvers, alongside Greece's naval cooperation with Egypt, as signals of readiness to coordinate security efforts. He also notes potential for closer alignment between Israel and Egypt, despite differing views on Libya and the Muslim Brotherhood, suggesting a united front with Greece and Cyprus to safeguard maritime interests.

Yagur calls for increased U.S. support for the IMEC and unimpeded shipping in the Eastern Mediterranean. He proposes a U.S.-facilitated regional security mechanism involving Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt, potentially including India, to protect energy assets, develop infrastructure, and coordinate naval actions. The retired officer concludes that this situation offers Israel an opportunity to strengthen ties with Greece and Egypt and play a more significant role in shaping Asian-Middle Eastern-European transport and energy routes.