Likud Plans Victory Declaration, Seeks Netanyahu Mandate Even Without Majority

The Likud party is planning to declare victory in the Knesset elections and request that its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, be tasked with forming a government, even if allied parties do not secure a parliamentary majority. This strategy is contingent on opposition parties not exceeding 61 seats, which could lead to a political confrontation over the mandate and government formation post-election. This planning was reported by Israeli public broadcaster Kan 11 on the eve of the vote.

Israeli reports are exploring post-election scenarios ranging from the formation of a new coalition to its failure, and attempts by each side to prevent the other from controlling the Knesset, potentially leading to new elections. Netanyahu's calculations are influenced by the results of the "Amcha Yisrael" list led by Ofer Vinter. If Vinter's list secures four seats, Likud and its allies would still need an additional five to seven seats beyond current poll projections to form a government. If Vinter's list fails to gain any seats, they would require about ten additional seats, a more difficult prospect.

Should Netanyahu fail to form a government, he may attempt to prevent rivals from forming an alternative coalition by exploiting their conflicting electoral pledges. He might also try to stop them from controlling the Knesset, which could enable them to remove the current Knesset Speaker, Amir Ohana, and repeal laws passed by his government.

Meanwhile, Gadi Eisenkot maintains that leadership of the largest party opposing Netanyahu grants priority in forming a government. When asked about the next prime minister, he responded, "I am," acknowledging internal leadership disputes but stating they would not hinder an agreement. Naftali Bennett, leader of the "Bayahad" list, aims to narrow the gap with Eisenkot to bolster his claim for the premiership or improve his position for potential new elections.

Yair Golan, leader of the "Democrats" party, criticized Eisenkot's campaign, calling it a "dangerous lie." The "Democrats" admitted to running direct campaigns against Eisenkot to boost their party's strength. An analysis by Channel 12 questioned whether the largest list size guarantees the mandate, noting that four of the last five candidates who received it failed to form a government. The analysis highlighted that Bennett previously called for support when leading polls, but majority calculations among parties are the decisive factor, especially as the risk of anti-Netanyahu blocs failing to pass the electoral threshold decreases.

Channel 12 also reported on a potential understanding between Netanyahu and Rabbi Abirgil regarding the withdrawal of the "Ahi" list, with Likud's Education Minister Yoav Kisch reportedly involved in these efforts. Likud aims to avoid wasting potential votes from this list, even if they number around 15,000.

The possibility of renewed conflict with Iran is emerging as a factor in coalition negotiations. Netanyahu's focus has shifted from security and stability promises in the 2022 elections to the potential for a third confrontation with Iran, following earlier incidents in June 2025 and February 2026. The US stance, particularly President Donald Trump's reluctance for an attack before the midterm elections, is seen as a key element in the timing of any potential confrontation.

Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir is reportedly cautious about preparatory steps that could lead to an uncalculated confrontation, contrasting with the positions of the heads of Mossad and Shin Bet, though not necessarily opposing an attack on Iran in principle. An assessment by Channel 12 suggests that parties opposing Netanyahu would continue efforts to form a government if given the mandate, even if a new war with Iran erupts, without forming a unity government.