Election Day Strategies Focus on Voter Turnout to Sway Results

With election day just hours away, campaign headquarters are mobilizing to ensure maximum voter turnout, particularly in peripheral areas where the coalition has historically struggled to mobilize voters. The "Saving the Right" campaign, led by Beraleh Crombie and Yisrael Gantz, is employing AI tools to identify and target right-wing voters who have not voted in recent elections, aiming for a 5% increase in turnout in Beersheba, which could translate to four or five additional mandates. The opposition, meanwhile, views voter turnout as crucial for victory, estimating that a 76-77% turnout in their strongholds, coupled with lower turnout in Haredi communities and increased Arab voter participation, could secure them over 61 mandates. Benny Gantz's campaign team has been working for months to maximize voting potential, with a key concern being vote leakage to other parties within the bloc, exacerbated by Naftali Bennett's campaign and potential post-election alliances. Recent polls show Gantz's party with similar mandate numbers. Arab parties are also striving to increase turnout to reduce the likelihood of a purely Zionist government. Haredi parties face voter disappointment due to the conscription crisis, with Shas seeing a decline in polls and United Torah Judaism experiencing internal struggles. Two new parties, "The Haredi Public" and "Black Color," could split Haredi votes. Smotrich is closely aligned with Likud to cross the electoral threshold, while Ben-Gvir is clashing with Likud, alleging Netanyahu intends to sideline him. Ofir Winter's new party is also complicating matters for Netanyahu, with his campaign targeting disappointed right-wing voters and those seeking a protest vote. Candidates Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha are part of Winter's list, bolstered by endorsements from public figures. The "Noam" party is estimated to garner around ten thousand votes. A high voter turnout is expected to make it harder for smaller parties to pass the electoral threshold, while a low turnout would ease their path. The opposition anticipates that Hendel, Zelekha, and Winter may struggle to pass the threshold in a high-turnout scenario, further complicated by a lack of coordination among some coalition parties and the absence of surplus agreements for smaller parties. Unpredictable factors remain, including the youth vote, recent immigrants from Russia and Ukraine, and Haredi voters considering abstention or voting for different parties.